Estonian Foreign Minister: Europe can put pressure on Russia in negotiations

Brussels. Major powers such as the USA, Russia and China appear to be reorganising the world order. What place does Europe occupy?

Europe is in a very strong position right now, but we have to defend that position. Putin is sticking to his main motive for the war. Russia's aim in this war is not just to gain territory in Ukraine, but to change the entire European security architecture. Putin wants to end NATO's presence in the region, but it is fundamental to our security. Therefore, we cannot allow a bad deal without a lot of influence from Europe and Ukraine. This is unacceptable. We have to make Ukraine strong enough to decide whether to accept the deal or not.

How can Europeans exert influence at the negotiating table?

If Europe and Ukraine are united and the Ukrainians are strong enough not to have to accept a bad deal, then the US will have to accept Europe's say at the negotiating table. This war is already in Europe and we can only end it together. We Europeans have a lot of power to put pressure on Russia in the negotiations. They want to get the 220 billion euros of frozen assets back and end the sanctions against the Russian economy. Both are in our hands, not in those of the Americans.

Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) and Donald Trump, President of the USA, during the G20 summit.

Source: Photo: Susan Walsh/AP

The US is trying to normalize its relations with Russia. Will Putin be rehabilitated by Trump?

Of course, that is exactly what it looks like right now. Trump does not seem to take the crimes Putin committed in Ukraine very seriously. We must not allow Trump to rewrite history in the pursuit of a quick deal. Unfortunately, we see that negotiations are already underway and talks between the two presidents will soon take place on an equal footing. Russia is not viewed by the US as an aggressive offender, but enjoys a very consolidated position compared to last month. We must put pressure on Russia economically and with sanctions to ensure that Moscow does not have the better negotiating position. If Russia and then the US want to talk about Europe and Ukraine, it is impossible to make decisions without our consent.

From Trump’s point of view, Putin has “the better cards.”

But the truth is that Putin has not achieved everything he wanted to achieve with his military aggression in the last three years. He planned a three-day special operation, but has been waging war for three years without any strategic success. This war has weakened Putin. Now he sees a chance to achieve his goals through negotiations. But if Putin wins, Ukraine and Europe will remain in serious danger. Now may be the last chance for a united Europe to support Ukraine militarily, financially and politically. Military support in particular must be accelerated. Estonia has just increased its military aid to Ukraine by 25 percent. But we also need to strengthen our own defense capabilities. I expect all NATO members to spend at least 3 to 3.5 percent of their gross domestic product on defense starting this year. But it's not about percentages, it's about fulfilling NATO defense plans. So we definitely need to invest much more in defense capabilities. To do this, we must find ways and means of financing it, just as we set up a 700 billion fund within two weeks when the Covid pandemic broke out.

During the negotiations, Trump could make concessions to Putin, such as the withdrawal of US troops and weapons systems from Eastern Europe. The new US Secretary of Defense has already stated that the presence of American troops in Europe will not last forever. Is this a serious threat?

Of course, there may be a withdrawal of troops, but we should not panic. Nothing like that has happened so far. We must not raise the alarm at every statement from the US, but focus on what the US is actually doing. Nevertheless, we must act in Europe and be prepared. Nobody will come and solve our problems. So we should not waste time thinking about what the US might do, but finally start acting. It is true that the US military presence in Europe is very important. But if we put our contribution on the table as an offer, Trump will have to negotiate with us. At the moment we are only demanding from the US, instead of contributing. That is a weak position. But we have a lot to offer.

The US wants Europe to take care of itself. But are peacekeepers for Ukraine and security guarantees possible without US troops and the US nuclear shield?

We must understand that Europe must invest a lot in peace. If the framework conditions are right, we must also take the lead in a peace mission. We are certainly capable of doing so. But we are not yet at that point because Putin does not want to end the war. I do not believe that Putin really wants peace. He is continuing to bomb Ukraine heavily. One thing is clear: in order to negotiate reliable security guarantees, we cannot take future NATO membership of Ukraine off the table. Europe must then also take responsibility itself and give Ukraine security guarantees - real security guarantees. We must think about what kind of military presence Ukraine needs from Europe so that it can live in peace.

Russia is a nuclear threat to Europe. Can the Europeans be strong enough without the deterrence of the USA?

I am fed up with the fear of escalation and the use of nuclear weapons. Putin has repeatedly said that he will soon use the atomic bomb, but he has never done so. He knows that would be political suicide. For us, that means we need to become more self-confident. But of course security guarantees from countries that have nuclear weapons would be more solid and reliable.