For the City, there are 90% more poor people than for INDEC

It may seem unusual, but it is not. In the City of Buenos Aires, there are almost 90% more poor people than according to the "microdata" of the Permanent Household Survey (EPH) referring to CABA processed by the specialist Martin Rozada, professor of Macroeconomics at the Di Tella Institute.

According to the Buenos Aires Institute of Statistics and Census, in the third quarter of 2024 poverty reached 28.1% (868,000 people) and the data processed by Rozada shows 15.3% for CABA (460,000 people). In extreme poverty, there is 11% for CABA (341,000) and 2.1% in the microdata (64,000). In this case, 5 times more.

INDEC publishes data on indigence and poverty by calendar semester, but publishes the EPH "microdata" on a quarterly basis, which allows specialists to calculate these social indicators.

This large difference of 408,000 poor and 277,000 more destitute between the Buenos Aires Statistics Institute and Rozada's results based on INDEC microdata, both official organizations, completely alter the analysis of the evolution of the social situation and the levels of vulnerability. And they are due to the different methodologies and how the data of both measurements are collected.

INDEC will announce the data for the second half of 2024 on March 31.

First, the greater weight of the most popular neighborhoods and the so-called ex-villas, especially in the communes of the southern zone of the City, in the compilation of figures on income and living conditions according to the Survey carried out by each organization. The Buenos Aires Institute's measurement shows that, of the total number of poor, 341,000 are destitute (11% of the total) versus 2.1% for INDEC.

Also due to inflation measurements, which are more up-to-date in CABA and which have shown a higher rise in prices in relation to the national index in the last year. And to the composition of the goods that make up the basic food basket.

Another key point is whether or not the value of the basket that determines poverty takes into account the rent paid by families who do not own their homes.

In the case of rent, INDEC considers the average between what tenants pay and what owners pay nothing. The Buenos Aires City Department calculates the value of the basket without rent and for non-owner households, it adds the rent. This results in very different values ​​in the poverty basket which, when compared to the income of the population, leads to strong differences between the two official measurements.

These differences are not new (they were 50% in 2019 alone), but they have been growing both in relation to the percentage and number of destitute and poor people. And they show that poverty did not decrease, but rather grew in the last year from 25.9% to 28.1%.

Thus, two official measurements that record poverty and indigence according to the income of individuals and households in relation to the value of a total basic basket (“poverty line” and “indigence line”) that is adjusted every month for the inflation of these baskets, spread very divergent results.

According to specialists, the reason for such differences is that:

The INDEC basket averages the rent, so it applies it equally to a household whether it is a tenant or not. Thus, although the values ​​and increases in the poverty basket are very similar (without rent), the treatment of the rent item explains part of the difference.

Compared to the previous one, the 2022 Census shows that access to housing in the City of Buenos Aires has a regressive trend. In the last 10 years, the proportion of homeownership has decreased by 8%. And the shantytowns that have grown the most in area and population are those in the South of the City of Buenos Aires.