Trump's tariffs threaten up to a quarter of Spanish exports to the US, but will barely affect GDP

The Spanish Chamber of Commerce has already put figures on the decline that Spanish exports would experience if the Trump Administration carries out its threat to set new tariffs . The general imposition of tariffs of 25% would reduce sales to the US market by almost a quarter, which would represent losses of up to 4.3 billion euros. But this scenario, which is positioned as the most unfavorable, would have an impact of just 0.27% on the Gross Domestic Product . The figures lead experts to conclude that the direct effect that the new chapter of hostilities, which is part of the trade war launched by the Republican president, would have on the national economy would be very limited, although the blow would be uneven by sector.

The study, based on an econometric model that analyses trade barriers and their sectoral impact, highlights that even in the worst-case scenario, the impact would be limited to 5% of the total exports of goods from the Spanish economy, which is the weight that sales to the United States represent in the total shipments of its products abroad that Spain makes. The effect is so residual because the bulk of what is sold abroad is destined for the European Union and the rest of Europe (around 74% of the total).

And the impact is likely to be even smaller. This is the view of analysts at the Chamber of Commerce, in line with another report on the subject prepared by the Bank of Spain itself, which takes as its central scenario a 10% tariff increase for all products entering the United States. Under this hypothesis, the impact on GDP would be just 0.06%, according to the business organisation's calculations. The regulatory body had estimated it at around 0.03%, which reaffirms the idea that Trump's new protectionist strategy will have little direct influence on the Spanish economy.

The difference between the two percentages is explained by the fact that, in the first case, the impact is calculated only for 2025. In the second case, however, the analysis was based on a three-year average, which softens the estimated annual impact. “It is logical that companies respond to the initial pressure of new tariffs with strategies that mitigate the impact. This includes negotiations with American exporters, diversification into new markets and modification of product formats, but this will not happen in the first year,” explains Raúl Mínguez, director of studies at the Spanish Chamber of Commerce.

So far, the US government has not carried out any of the trade threats launched by Trump against Europe. Since he arrived at the Oval Office just a month ago, he has promised tariffs of around 25% on the import of aluminium, steel , cars, chips and pharmaceutical products, as well as on products from Mexico and Canada . But the fact is that so far no exact figure has been set and there is no date for its entry into force, so it is interpreted as a negotiating strategy to reduce the skyrocketing trade deficit that the world's largest economy maintains.

Sectoral impact

Although Spain has little to worry about in the big picture, there are some branches of activity that are particularly exposed and could suffer significant cuts in their sales to the United States. “Producers of machinery, tools, motors or office equipment, as well as those of medicines, plastics or fertilizers, could see a considerable part of their exports to the North American country at risk,” says Mínguez. Manufacturers of machinery and electrical material, with exports to the United States of more than 4 billion euros in 2024, would suffer the greatest setback. In a scenario of 25% tariffs, sales could plummet by up to 28%.

The chemical and pharmaceutical industries would also be vulnerable, with projected falls of 16.5% in the worst-case scenario. For the metallurgical sector, the impact would also be significant, with reductions of 10.3% in exports of iron, steel and aluminium. The agri-food sector, traditionally sensitive to trade barriers, faces a peculiar situation. Although the estimated overall fall is 6% in the most adverse context, iconic products such as olive oil and wine could see their presence in the US market reduced in a similar way to what happened between 2019 and 2020, when the tariff restrictions imposed by Trump sank sales of Spanish oil in the world's leading power by 70%.

In addition to these sectoral setbacks, there are also some “indirect effects.” These would come “by way of reducing indirect exports of goods to the US market – sales of products to third countries that ultimately end up in the US – and also reducing certain services associated with merchandise transactions, such as transport and logistics, insurance, repair and after-sales services, or financial services,” explains the Chamber of Commerce analyst.

Indeed, the target of the Republican president's protectionist policy are some of Spain's main trading partners in Europe. These include Germany, France and Italy, which export between 22% and 17% of their goods to the American country. A blow to their economic growth, which is already going through a slump , could result in a lower demand for Spanish goods or services for their production processes. This would translate into a drop in sales to those countries as well.

But before that scenario can be reached, Trump's protectionist turn must be implemented. Brussels' aim is to prevent a trade war from becoming a reality, and it is therefore willing to negotiate an agreement with Washington. Last week, European trade chief Maros Sefcovic began talks with his American counterparts to address the issue. Europe is seeking to keep the US on board, but has also made it clear that if an understanding is not reached, it will respond with "firmness and proportionality."