X-ray of the green-brown rebellion against nepotism

President Sheinbaum received a major political setback to her reform against reelection and nepotism because, although it passed the Senate's customs, her ranks shelved it until the end of her government. Morena and allies blocked one of her main initiatives to prevent the inheritance of public positions by family clans and local bosses, even though they shout out against the degradation of politics.

The rebellion against a priority initiative of hers leaves a picture of the “tour” of force between leaders in Congress, the party in the states and the allies of her coalition. The reform was approved unanimously in general, but with changes that deactivate or reduce it to the discretion of Morena's internal rules; and not as a constitutional prohibition, as Sheinbaum intended.

Postponing the sanction of nepotism until the federal election of 2030 is the second slap in the face that the President has received in Congress after the appointment of the president of the CNDH. Morena's justification was to avoid the "breakup" of its coalition with the Green Party in a minefield of interests due to the resistance of the "family clans" to lose control of positions that they have exercised as if they were their property, "barons" such as the Salgados , Monreales , Moreiras , Yunes or Beltrones . This was recognized by the president of the Senate, Gerardo Fernández Noroña , when accepting that Morena gave in to pressure from the Green Party to privilege unity and protect its absolute majority in the Senate.

Although there are no complete statistics, this is an inveterate practice of all parties in Congress and the different levels of government, which are not included in the reform either. Despite the fact that its most pernicious effect is to close the circles of political power to leaders who perpetuate themselves in office and sponsor the corruption of administrations without consequences. Precisely, Sheinbaum seeks a more even playing field for electoral competition and to open up a greater margin to promote the renewal of political cadres obstructed by the caciques.

For this reason, the dispute is thorny and includes other parties equally interested in diluting the reform; although a sector loyal to Sheinbaum in Congress tried to regain its strength. In the internal struggle between the Morena leaderships and allies at the national and state levels, control of the candidate lists is a key issue to maintain their preserves. At the local level, the initiative generated a rebellion between municipalities and local powers with threats of legal claims to stop it. The leadership in the party and in the Senate took advantage of the dangers to internal unity to maintain the loyalties of local powers, such as Salgado Macedonio in Guerrero, Monreal in Zacatecas or the governor of the Green Party in San Luis Potosí, who is opposed to the initiative.

And to save face in the event of a defeat for the president, they agreed to leave the ban against nepotism for 2027 only in Morena's internal regulations; a much smaller obstacle for aspirations such as that of Salgado Macedonio to succeed his daughter, Evelyn , in Guerrero, or of Saúl Monreal , in Zacatecas, and null for the claim of the governor of San Luis Potosí to inherit the position to his partner, Senator Ruth González ; and much less to prevent running electorally under the acronyms of other parties in the coalition without this limitation.

The diagnosis of the X-ray is that, even though it will still go through Congress, the powers and clans of Morena and its coalition have shown the President the edge of their knives early on. First, its leader in the Senate, Adán Augusto López Hernández , who ignored the reservation she presented to postpone the reform; then, the partners of her coalition, who, like the Green Party, also imposed themselves on her initiative and, finally, strong men of Morena, like Andrés López Beltrán , who preferred to avoid risks that would generate internal instability or affect their own political interests in the future.

The image of actors is a map of the focus of attention for the political control that the President requires for the stability of her mandate. That is the underlying message conveyed by the game of forces that disabled a flagship initiative of her government; and in her need to move quickly in the construction of her own political space where she can strengthen her territorial political operation, beyond popularity in the polls.