A better-than-expected first half of the year in the US, following the OECD's revision to GDP expectations.

Behind the OECD's upward revision to its growth expectations for Mexico is the knock-on effect on economic activity of the improved GDP performance observed during the first and second quarters, as well as stronger demand from the United States.

This was explained in an interview at the organization's headquarters in Paris by Alberto González Pandiella, the head of the Mexico and Costa Rica section of the organization.

He emphasized that a key factor in the context of tariffs has been the differentiated treatment the United States is granting to exports made under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). This is a positive and encouraging sign about the outlook that could emerge if the review of the trade agreement is accelerated, he noted.

Following the release of the Interim Report, in which the Organization raised its growth forecast for Mexico to 0.8% from 0.4% in June, González Pandiella highlighted the "good figures for exports, outside of automotive, and the fact that the tariffs have not been effectively felt."

When he talks about other exports that have seen positive performance that contrasts with those of the automotive sector, he is referring specifically to machinery and equipment, food products, and mining and metallurgy.

The Mexican expert estimated that next year, the Mexican economy could accelerate slightly, recording a 1.3% growth, taking advantage of the tailwinds that a less restrictive monetary policy will bring.

According to him, further rate cuts will be expected as inflation resumes its downward trend. For now, the Organization anticipates an average inflation rate of 4.2% this year, which is far from the target.

USA, migration and tariffs

The Section Chief for Mexico and Costa Rica highlighted, in contrast, the expected outlook for the United States, which, according to his forecasts, will see a greater impact from immigration policy and tariffs next year.

In fact, the OECD anticipates US GDP growth of 1.8% this year and 1.5% in 2026.

He explained that the impact of the tariffs in the United States has not yet been seen, either on the population's purchasing power or on inflation, because companies have brought forward their imports to try to avoid the impact of the tariffs going into effect.

However, as inventories run out, he expects a more visible impact on inflation and the economy.

The situation is not similar for Mexico, he noted. While the Economic Package contemplates the application of tariffs to countries with which there are no trade agreements, he says the impact could be tempered by operating rules.

González Pandiella explained that his forecast of a 3.7% inflation rate for 2026 does not yet include the impact of the tariffs going into effect.

Judicial reform and disappearance of autonomous bodies

The expert believes the revision of the USMCA will help dispel the uncertainty global businesspeople have about entering Mexico, although he declined to estimate how quickly this evolution will be reflected in the flow of investment.

He suggested that along the way, they address the areas of opportunity that have been pointed out for Mexico for years, in infrastructure and investment and in education, and find a way to guarantee respect for the rule of law after the reform of the Judicial Branch and the disappearance of autonomous bodies.

The OECD is an economic research center with 64 years of experience and has supported Mexico since 1994, when it became the 25th member.