The cost to the Colombian economy of returning to the past of terrorist attacks / Analysis by Ricardo Ávila

Even in a country that has felt the whiplash of violence countless times throughout its history, what happened on Thursday shook national opinion with particular force. The reason, in addition to the lamentable loss of so many lives, was the impression that Colombia is retracing its steps and risks once again embarking on a path that, until recently, seemed to have been left behind forever.

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The shocking scenes of death and destruction completely shattered the dream of a complete peace that never happened, the same one that Gustavo Petro had held up as his ultimate goal in 2022. Truth be told, skepticism about any achievement had been growing for months , along with the perception that the security climate was clearly deteriorating.

According to the Colombia Opina survey conducted by Invamer in 84 municipalities, from 2017—when the survey began—until July 2024, public order never topped the list of concerns for Colombians. Now it's at the top of the list of concerns, something that began to be seen towards the end of last year and that has become more evident with each measurement.

Although this is a subjective opinion, numerous indicators support the widespread feeling that a worsening situation is underway. Both official figures and information gathered by foundations and analysts show that this heightened apprehension is based on reality.

Those responsible for monitoring the critical issue of public peace have issued numerous warnings. Now, the warnings are growing in tone, given the likelihood of further deterioration , unless a major change of direction occurs, something that doesn't seem feasible in the short term.

The reasons are multiple, ranging from limited resources to political circumstances, to mistakes and the well-known management problems that have plagued an executive branch described as dysfunctional. Added to this are morale problems within the Armed Forces, combined with a rise in armed illegality , fueled by drug trafficking and criminal mining.

Furthermore, there are reasonable doubts about what might happen in other sectors. One obvious one is the economy, whose acceptable performance depends on healthy domestic consumption and the smooth flow of productive activity. Maintaining confidence is crucial to ensure that employment and household well-being are not affected , which becomes much more challenging when uncertainty arises.

What does the current picture show? According to the Ministry of Defense's monthly monitoring, there are both ups and downs. To cite one example, vehicle theft—which includes cars and motorcycles—fell 21 percent in the first seven months of 2025. Similarly, for residential and commercial burglaries, the same crime decreased by 19 and 36 percent, respectively.

Cattle rustling, land piracy, and theft from individuals and financial institutions also declined significantly. Even extortion complaints show a decline, although some claim that those filed are a fraction of the total.

Regarding illegal mining, there are also notable operational improvements. The number of mines seized increased by 22 percent , the same figure as the increase in seizures of yellow machinery.

However, the picture is beginning to change in key figures. It may not be a massive increase, but the cumulative number of intentional homicides has risen 4 percent through July. Much more alarming is the 90 percent increase in kidnapping for ransom cases , whose total of 188 through July is close to the 209 recorded for all of 2024.

Meanwhile, acts of terrorism are growing by 12 percent and are heading toward their highest level in more than ten years. The most serious individual factor is the explosion of oil pipelines, which has increased by 600 percent in the first half of 2025.

The impact on drug trafficking is more difficult to assess. The government emphasizes that cocaine seizures exceeded 600 tons in the first seven months of the year, a record high that is almost four times the amount seized in 2015. The basis for comparison is different.

The area under coca cultivation is the highest on record (253,000 hectares in 2023, the most recent figure), and manual eradication barely reached 3,636 hectares as of July, a far cry from the 54,578 hectares cleared in 2020 during the same period. At the current pace, it seems unlikely that the goal of reaching 30,000 hectares by the end of the year will be achieved.

However, the real wake-up call is heard when it is noted that the number of members of the security forces killed in the line of duty has soared by 149 percent through July, while the number of wounded has increased by 88 percent. Part of the explanation lies in an effort to regain territorial control lost due to the withdrawal attributable to the total peace policy, but the blows received are of such magnitude that they require a deeper reflection.

Few doubt that there has been a weakening of the military forces. This is the opinion of Professor Eduardo Pizarro, a true authority on the subject who recently wrote a text on the topic.

In his assessment, the academic highlights how the force has decreased and stands at nearly 181,000 troops, 27 percent less than its peak in 2012. As if that weren't worrying enough, the deterioration in air capacity is flagrant. So much so that nearly 100 helicopters are out of service, not to mention combat aircraft.

Decisions made by the Nariño Government, such as cutting off cooperation from Israel, have had a huge impact. One consequence is that the communications equipment used by troops has become obsolete or inoperable, so messaging apps like WhatsApp have ended up being used to coordinate operations despite the risk of being intercepted and the lack of coverage in rural areas.

On paper, the security and defense sector has been able to maintain significant budget allocations, even if it has lost its share of state spending. The problem is that nearly 80 percent of the funds allocated go to personnel , while relatively little is allocated to modernization.

For example, in the 2026 budget proposal under consideration by Congress, the operating budget for the Defense and Police sectors is nearly 65 billion pesos, while investment would be 3.7 billion. Recent salary increases and the pension burden explain why the staffing gap is growing.

Due to the combination of the aforementioned factors and others, the current reading indicates that the Colombian State is incapable of exercising proper territorial control. The situation in border areas is especially critical, as is the case in those areas where different irregular armed groups converge . Halting the deterioration is urgent, as evidenced by the many places in trouble.

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You don't need a crystal ball to predict that this issue will be of great relevance in the electoral debate already underway. While the country's reality is different from that of the beginning of the century, whoever convinces voters that their security proposals are the right ones and demonstrates a viable future of social progress will have a better chance of reaching the Presidency of the Republic.

Beyond speculating about candidacies, most of which are still in their infancy, the important thing is to understand that there are solutions, some more quickly realized than others. Due to its complex history, which includes facing multiple manifestations of violence , Colombia has developed a strong analytical capacity that is not easy to find elsewhere and that is found both in the Armed Forces and in academia.

“It sounds obvious, but the point is to have a more operational public force,” says Jorge Restrepo of Javeriana University. “This objective involves not only examining the number of troops and strategies for presence in the territory, but also incorporating the technological change that has accelerated substantially due to the war in Ukraine and that includes the use of drones and electronic and digital tools,” he adds.

Taking over the spaces currently disputed by numerous armed groups is an essential requirement , and other proposals have been added. In several debates involving presidential candidates, the idea of ​​ending political crimes has been repeatedly mentioned, as they end up being a way to justify the most abominable acts and attacks.

On the other hand, Restrepo maintains that it is imperative to combat a terrorism with more heads and tentacles. Raising our guard and using state intelligence to confront threats is imperative to prevent attacks that leave even more bloodshed.

One of the most complex issues in the near future will be securing more funds, which are essential. Along with the search for additional sources of funding, a thorough review of expenditures is imperative , seeking efficiencies and avoiding waste.

This includes delving into very complex issues. Eduardo Pizarro shows how Colombia has one of the twenty largest military forces in the world and the third largest in Latin America, after Brazil and Mexico. But when the concept of military power is introduced, the country drops to 46th place because human and other resources are not utilized appropriately.

While the time for transformations arrives, the big question is what might happen in the coming months. For María Victoria Llorente, director of the Ideas for Peace Foundation, " the risks that are increasing and will continue during the government shutdown are clashes between armed groups , attacks on public forces by those same armed groups, and the humanitarian impacts generated by this situation."

Likewise, the expert identifies "a greater electoral risk, to the extent that all the conditions of conflict are worsening, which implies considering greater disruptions to voting days, restrictions on voters, and possible difficulties in enabling polling stations due to public order ."

The warnings regarding the economy cannot be ignored either. Llorente identifies the cost of the loss of institutional legitimacy for investment, the increased uncertainty affecting businesses and consumers, and the costs that potential blockades or terrorist actions that could affect the mobility or delivery of products would incur for the private sector .

Among this list, we must not forget that the strong performance of tourism is in question. Maintaining these recent positive results will depend on those attracted to Colombia continuing to consider it a safe destination that can be explored without any problems.

Given so many questions, the messages coming from the Casa de Nariño are also essential. There is no doubt that the current leadership crisis—which includes misguided attitudes toward criminals and polarizing messages—is influencing what happens with security. This is happening at a time when citizens are experiencing growing anxiety as the idea of ​​making Colombia a "global powerhouse" is increasingly distancing itself from what is happening at home.