Why does the probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 impact change every day? NASA explains

With good news, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) provided details of the asteroid 2024 YR4 that has planet Earth in suspense due to its possible impact.

The US government agency concluded that the object will not pose a threat , as its probability "has fallen to 0.004%."

Faced with this, thousands of people are wondering why the alarms of a possible impact are sounding. NASA explained why the probability changes every day.

In fact, according to the agency, this asteroid is expected to "pass safely by Earth in 2032," as will many other celestial bodies.

Initially, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration explains that the frequent change is due to the scientific process.

" As NASA and other agencies participating in the International Asteroid Warning Network gather more observations of asteroid 2024 YR4, the asteroid's future trajectory can be better understood ," he explained.

In fact, for those who are more curious about the topic, you can see new data and assessments of the probabilities on the Sentry page, which contains the list of objects of possible risk.

In a statement, NASA explained that new observations of the asteroid have allowed experts from its Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) to calculate more precise models of its trajectory and confirm that it does not have a "significant potential" to impact the Earth in the next century.

"The latest observations have further reduced the uncertainty of its future trajectory , and the range of possible locations where the asteroid could be on December 22, 2032 has moved further away from Earth," the statement said.

Despite all this, the agency continued to raise the probability of impact on the Moon on that particular day in 2032 to 1.7%, which is still "very small."

NASA said it will continue to monitor the asteroid to, among other things, gain information about its size for scientific purposes.

"Although this asteroid no longer poses a significant impact risk to Earth, 2024 YR4 provided an invaluable opportunity for NASA experts and its partner institutions to test planetary defense science and notification processes," he said.

The Earth is not exempt from an asteroid entering the atmosphere and although NASA has a deflection technique, it is important to note that the damage these objects can cause depends on their size.

For example, if an asteroid hits a populated region and is 40 to 60 meters (130 to 200 feet) in size, " it could break windows or cause minor structural damage in a town ."

However, if the size is "about 90 meters (300 feet), which is much less likely, it could cause more severe damage, potentially knocking down residential structures in a city and breaking windows in larger regions," according to NASA .

GERALDINE BAJONERO VASQUEZ

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