Junts demands answers from Sánchez and sees room to strengthen its support.

The fall of Santos Cerdán as PSOE's organizational secretary after learning that the report from the Civil Guard's Central Operational Unit (UCO) implicates him in the alleged collection of commissions for public works contracts has created uncertainty for Junts per Catalunya. The former number three of the Socialists was the architect of the agreements with JxCat for the Congressional Bureau and for Pedro Sánchez's investiture, in addition to being the main interlocutor to whom the post-Convergent parties turned and who was part of the negotiating table in Switzerland. His departure has a direct impact on relations between the two parties, and Junts is now assessing the scenarios that may arise. One of them is that, despite the moment of impasse, several voices see an opportunity in the government's weakness to increase their votes at a time when they need results from the negotiations.

From the outset, the main question to be resolved is who will be chosen to replace Cerdán in the negotiations with Junts. "It all started with you," Jordi Turull told the then-president of the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV), Andoni Ortuzar, in February. The former Basque Nationalist Party (Jeltzale) leader mediated a meeting between Turull and Cerdán in March 2023, at which point the thaw between JxCat and the PSOE began. The relationship between the two was well-oiled, there was trust, and, in the face of certain ministerial resistance—Junts sources say—Santos made the decision. Hence the fear for the future of the negotiations and whoever assumes this role in the PSOE. They have lost the figure who had provided a fluid understanding. It was a great surprise within the party that Sánchez did not allow for the presumption of innocence of his former organization secretary.

It is in this context that, given the seriousness of the events, Junts urgently convened its permanent committee on Thursday afternoon and decided to request an immediate meeting with Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez. In a statement, they expressed their desire to know "directly" how the legislature can continue and, based on that, decide accordingly. For now, they are holding out on the Executive branch.

Beyond Cerdán, dialogue also exists with former Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero and with the former collaborator of the former Secretary of Organization, Juan Francisco Serrano. Pending the changes Sánchez will make to his executive—and particularly with his election as Secretary of Organization—JxCat is wary, for example, of potential interlocutors such as Félix Bolaños. They have always expressed misgivings about the Minister of the Presidency, who is more in tune with ERC.

Be that as it may, the "dimension" of the case has not gone unnoticed by the post-Convergent parties, and they also see a "risk" in not letting the government fall. But the uncharted waters they believe the legislature may have entered have this "window of opportunity." With a government that is fragile but wants to continue until 2027, "it can only continue with the same people as before," they say.

The focus is also on those issues that remain pending. Following a request from mediator Francisco Galindo, the party decided to withdraw the debate on the vote of no confidence in the hope that issues related to the Brussels Pact would be resolved. Issues such as the official status of Catalan in the European Union or the substantiation of the delegation of powers over immigration—something extremely complicated right now due to resistance from Podemos—could be resolved before the summer, according to some, and thus yield results from the negotiations. The agreements and commitments are there. But their implementation remains to be seen. It will be the resolution—or lack thereof—of points like this that will tip the balance one way or the other, although without a specific timeframe.

What all this has had an impact on is the so-called political amnesty. On Thursday, Jordi Turull insisted on the advisability of a meeting between Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and former President Carles Puigdemont so that the former can recognize the latter as a "valid interlocutor." After what happened, they don't want to play the role of Sánchez's "lifeline," so they believe now may not be the right time. In this context, it's also clear that the judicial amnesty is not yet finalized.

Junts is moving cautiously out of the shadow of a shock. This Saturday, it meets its national council, the highest body between congresses. It's a regular meeting, but circumstances have meant it coincides with the height of the political storm. It will be the party's first public statement once details of the UCO report have become known, and the address will be delivered by Secretary General Jordi Turull.