Summit and tremor in Peronism: "Cristina is going to jail"

The apartment is old, but not in the best sense of the word. If it were put up for sale, real estate agents would call it vintage. Spacious, with high ceilings, in a building without a gym or amenities, it looks rather neglected , with furniture that wouldn't catch any decorator's eye. Nor is it located in the heart of Recoleta, like the apartment Cristina lived in before the judicial storm raged against her, and the Criminal Court of Appeals upheld her six-year prison sentence for fraudulent management to the detriment of the State.

After the assassination attempt, and to be closer to her daughter, Florencia, Cristina moved to San José and Humberto Primo, an apartment that the Los Sauces community paid $370,000 for at the time. This is one of the most unprotected areas of the city, although her new neighbors often tell Mariano Cabral, her secretary, that they now feel safer because they see so many police officers and patrol cars coming and going 24 hours a day. They say the PJ leader once went to a Chinese supermarket , surrounded by the plainclothes police officers guarding her, and thanked them for their kind treatment.

Those who support her have begun to wonder if this is the property the former president would choose if the Supreme Court upholds her prison sentence and her lawyers request house arrest based on her age. Cristina turned 72 on February 19. She is protected by Law 26,472. It wouldn't seem like the appropriate place for someone who, according to two courts, misappropriated millions of dollars at the expense of an impressive scheme to defraud the state that began under her husband, Néstor Kirchner, and continued during his administrations. A man from the Conurbano area who knows the department and never loses his dark humor says: "If she stole so much to end up like this..."

Although the PJ president's entourage remains tightly secretive on this particular issue, some people are already searching for houses and villas to make available to her. Cristina, in principle, would rule out living in a place with similar characteristics to the one Carlos Menem chose—Carlos Gostanian's villa in Don Torcuato—during his 167 days in pretrial detention. But there are those who insist on advising her to consider a comfortable and remote location. The Conurbano district, more specifically one of the nineteen districts that make up the Third Electoral Section, where she hopes to be a candidate on September 7. Others argue that it would be more appropriate for her to return to the South, far from journalists and political passions.

But how much is being talked about within Peronism about the Court's ruling? A lot in recent days . The rumor of an imminent ruling by the Supreme Court's judges set off alarm bells within the party, and beyond: the issue is being discussed with great interest in various establishment circles. Almost eighteen years have passed since the first complaints. Since then, the courts have accessed hundreds of administrative files, budgets, payment orders, and key documents to verify the criminal activity involving public funds. The moment of truth has arrived.

Cristina overshadowed the agenda on Monday when, in an interview on C5N, she revealed that she would run for legislator in the September elections in the province of Buenos Aires. Neither when she was anointed as a presidential candidate in 2007, nor when she faced reelection in 2011, nor when she decided to run for the Senate in 2017, did she announce it so far in advance. It's easy to assume that she had, at the very least, some suspicion that the Court might rule soon and wanted to apply pressure. The myth of proscription could grow if she were convicted.

The world around her is divided. One group speculates that, out of aversion to Kirchnerism, some journalists are urging Horacio Rosatti, Carlos Rosenkrantz, and Ricardo Lorenzetti to issue a statement before July 19 (the day the candidacies are officially announced in Buenos Aires province). Another group assumes that the press merely reports information gathered from the judges' own offices or from their advisors.

The issue was addressed, although not fully addressed, at a summit late Thursday night in San Telmo, with a picnic in between, at a venue run by Senator Mariano Recalde, one of the most active in the effort to ensure his representative lacks nothing, both now and when the ruling is issued. In addition to Recalde and Cristina, Representative Máximo Kirchner, Senator Eduardo de Pedro, and mayors Mayra Mendoza (Quilmes), Federico Otermín (Lomas de Zamora), Leonardo Nardini (Malvinas Argentinas), Ariel Sujarchuk (Escobar), and Gastón Granados (Ezeiza) were present. The excuse had been another: the leader had just met for two hours with Axel Kicillof. They hadn't spoken for more than six months.

Cristina and her rebel disciple agreed to run together in the elections. That is, to alternate names on the ballot. There were exchanges of recriminations: he demanded that the Camporists stop boycotting him in the Legislature, and she criticized him for having cut himself off just to split the elections. They both left feeling that they had gained something and given something up. The relationship between them remains fractured. " There is no unity, there is a single list, which is not the same thing," summed up one of those attending the San Telmo meeting.

During the meeting, Cristina was careful not to criticize Kicillof and shared that she and the governor had agreed to set up a meeting to discuss names for September and for the national election in October. The possibility of a court ruling that would change everything hovered over the discussion. One of the witnesses dared to ask: "Have we heard anything from the Court?" Cristina pretended not to understand. Only later, as if in passing, did she remark: "All the plans and things we can think of can be altered if the Court doesn't want it."

The feeling within Peronism is undeniable: "She knows she's going to go to jail. We all sense it." A prominent Kirchnerist who didn't participate in that summit says he spoke about it some time ago. "She used to deny it, but now she's giving us the impression that the sentence will be issued soon."

The tremors are already being felt. What attitude would the party take if its leader couldn't run in September? La Cámpora is preparing to mobilize. One of its members says they will follow Lula's path in Brazil. "Don't dream of him retiring. From prison to the presidency, it could be a one-step process," they exaggerate.

An adverse ruling against the former president wouldn't be the best news for the government. That's how Karina Milei and Santiago Caputo interpret it. They never believed it would be the judges who would rule her out. "We want to beat her with votes ," they agree. Her launch in the third section sparked various meetings at the Casa Rosada. In the end, the idea of ​​giving her a taste of her own medicine prevailed: for now, no candidate will be officially announced. They could wait until the end of the legal deadline.

The libertarian shipowner in the Province, Sebastián Pareja, visited Balcarce 50 on several occasions to chat with the presidential sister. Several names were thrown around, from Daniel Parisini—the Fat Dan in X—to Nahuel Sotelo, the Secretary of Worship. Caputo is reportedly thinking about the influencer Iñaki Gutiérrez. Karina and Caputo maintain differences, although they agree on the spirit of the candidate's choice. A young, provocative, and libertarian tweeter.

Dan's name sent shivers through the Macri camp. For Mauricio Macri and a segment of the PRO party, he would be too big a snitch . Just look at his tone on social media to understand why. Cristian Ritondo, Diego Santilli, and Guillermo Montenegro, the most enthusiastic about the alliance, would prefer not to engage in unnecessary fights. For them, they must make a deal at all costs. Old PRO party members, such as María Eugenia Vidal and Silvia Lospennato, are beginning to show differences. The former governor and the elected Buenos Aires legislator abstained from voting on the pension increase for retirees, which was partially approved by the House of Representatives. Javier Milei announced that if the Senate passes it into law, he will veto it.

Before embarking on a flight to Rome to meet with Pope Leo XIV, the President warned his staff that those who voted in favor of the pension increase or abstained were populists or traitors . This does not bode well for the future of an emerging convergence of forces, although Cristina's weakness, the Supreme Court's likely ruling, and the electoral situation appear, at first glance, to be on the government's side.