What does the latest poll that reached the Government say about the forecast for Sunday in the Province?

A difference in favor of Peronism of just 1.9 points with undecided and blank votes , and 2.2 if these variables are projected . This is the latest forecast the national government has in hand, ahead of this Sunday's strategic Buenos Aires election . It was made by Federico Aurelio , one of the analysts closest to President Javier Milei . He is the head of the consulting firm Aresco .

The study conducted by Clarín was based on a comprehensive survey of 6,023 cases , distributed proportionally across the eight electoral sections of the provincial legislature and collected online and by telephone. The overall margin of error is +/- 1.24%.

"Given the high level of expected abstention and the fact that this research does not consider the potential drag on the ballots, a parity scenario is recorded in view of the September 2025 provincial election in the Province of Buenos Aires, slightly favorable to Peronism ," the report explains in clear letters.

Next to the legend, two pictures can be seen:

1) The first, under the "Trend" label, with 5.7% of "don't know" and 5.8% of "blank" votes, places Fuerza Patria at the top with 36.7% and La Libertad Avanza second with 34.8% (the aforementioned gap of 1.9 points). Completing the list are the Left Front (5.6%), Somos (5.2%) and Other parties (5.8%).

2) The second, titled "Projection," now without the undecided and the white voters, raises the voting intention of the United Peronists to 41.7% and that of the Libertarian Front + PRO to 39.5% . A difference of 2.2 points. In this case, the Left Front (6.4%), Somos (5.9%), and Other Parties (6.6%) are at the bottom.

This poll is in line with what Clarín reported over the weekend and what most pollsters maintain. It's supposedly a close race, but with an advantage for Peronism.

Only one pollster stands out clearly from the rest: Julio Burdman , head of the Isasi-Burdman party, who predicts a Libertarian victory . In his favor, he was one of those who correctly predicted Adorni's victory in Buenos Aires .

As this newspaper has already explained, this Buenos Aires election is difficult to predict for several reasons:

1) For the first time in history, local elections will be held separately from national elections.

2) It is a particular fight, divided into 8 electoral sections of very different weights , and with many people who still do not know what they are voting for.

3) They will occur in a context of widespread apathy toward politics, with record absenteeism in most of the 2025 provincial elections.

4) The two main forces (the united Peronist parties of Fuerza Patria and La Libertad Avanza + PRO) assembled their lists with strong internal conflicts and wounded opponents . Will everyone work to win?

5) The audio scandal over alleged bribes in the Disability area added an external element , the impact of which is unclear .

In addition to the overall result, the survey breaks down voting intentions into eight sections . Aurelio clarifies this by pointing out that, except for the First and Third, the two largest, in the remaining six, "this research does not constitute the necessary study plan for making an electoral forecast."

For years, pollsters have been under intense pressure from the press and public opinion and have received harsh criticism. In a context of division, every error in forecasts is interpreted as an attempt to benefit or harm one party or another. Consolation: the phenomenon is global.

Returning to Aresco 's study, Fuerza Patria appears on top in both large sections (70% of the total electorate) . Maximum alert for La Libertad Avanza: in the initial hypotheses/polls, the libertarians were leading in the First Section and losing in the Third. The question was the gaps: whether one could compensate for the other. If they lose in both, the rest will be much more complicated.

In this study, Peronism leads by 2 points in the First Section (4,732,831 eligible voters) and by 15.2 points in the Third Section (4,637,863). With the projected numbers, Gabriel Katopodis leads Diego Valenzuela 42.3% to 40.3%; and Verónica Magario leads Maximiliano Bondarenko 47.4% to 32.2%.

In the other six sections (which account for around 30% of the vote), the LLA + PRO candidates are leading, bringing the total number of votes within two points of the United Peronist party.

One of the Violeta's big bets is the Fifth Section , which includes Mar del Plata, with 1,290,948 eligible voters . The big favorite there is former PRO mayor Guillermo Montenegro , who leads Camporist Fernanda Raverta by more than 20 points: 55.2% to 34.3% .

The other strong section is the Eighth , which includes the provincial capital of La Plata, with 576,691 eligible voters . In this race, according to Aresco , the libertarian Francisco Adorni (brother of Manuel, the presidential spokesman) leads his rival from Fuerza Patria, Ariel Archanco , by almost 5 points: 44.1% to 39.3% .

In each section, the paper lists will be composed of two bodies : one for the provincial vote (for senators or deputies) and another for the municipal vote (for councilors). This last point is also crucial and raises some questions. How much of an impact will the influence of mayors like Jorge Ferraresi or Fernando Espinoza, who are running as token candidates, have? Some presume a lot.

As Clarín reported, if the result predicted by Aresco and other consulting firms is true, there could be a double celebration: Peronism would celebrate the overall victory, and the Libertarians would embrace each other for having won the majority of the sections.