Bayrou faces the risk of a break with the unions

Two weeks after François Bayrou's announcements aimed at stabilizing public debt by 2029, the government was able to gauge the degree of hostility they arouse among the unions. On July 21, three unions, the CGT, FO, and CFE-CGC, refused to attend the consultation organized by Astrid Panosyan-Bouvet, the Minister for Labor and Employment. The CFDT and CFTC, which attended, expressed their indignation after learning of the broad outlines of the unemployment insurance reform advocated by the executive.

Further tightening of the conditions for access to compensation, further reduction in its duration, and tightening of the system for conventional terminations. This third round of tightening in five years, intended to generate between 3 and 4 billion euros in savings at cruising speed, appears to be one blow too many: no serious impact study has been conducted to assess the effect of previous reforms on the return to work, while the government highlights 450,000 unfilled positions. In a more than gloomy economic climate, there is a great risk of increasing job insecurity and poverty.

Cornered by the need to act quickly and forcefully, the government is tempted to rely on polls rather than unions to adjust the major measures of its plan before the start of the school year. It is well aware of how difficult it is for the latter to organize strong mobilizations around the defense of the unemployed. It also sees the extent to which the theme of abuse propagated by the far right and the right is gaining ground. According to an Elabe poll for BFM-TV conducted the day after the Prime Minister's announcements, 82% of French people support his desire to strengthen controls on long-term sick leave. Conversely, the proposed elimination of two public holidays is proving highly unpopular.

Doing without the unions would not be a first under Emmanuel Macron's two-year term, but the more tensions grow with them, the more the head of government exposes himself to the risk of censure from the left in the fall. In recent months, François Bayou, on the other hand, had attempted, through the "conclave" on pensions, to bring the CFDT and the reformist unions back into the game. The momentum is now broken.

The scale of the adjustments required to reduce the public deficit from 5.4% of GDP in 2025 to 2.8% in 2029 requires long-term reforms. Those advocated by the government are based on the idea of "working more to produce more." They have no chance of success if the social partners involved in the life of the company are not encouraged to find a minimum of consensus, if the feeling develops that it is always the same people who pay, and if the issues of job attractiveness and remuneration are not addressed in parallel.

Compared to their European neighbors, businesses in France are less likely to integrate young people into the labor market and more quickly get rid of older workers. Acting on these two levers to increase the volume of work seems the most credible path, but it assumes that everyone, including employers, plays along. However, the latter is too likely to shirk the responsibility by citing the harshness of international competition or the high cost of labor. If it wants to succeed, the government must remind it more firmly that it is an essential partner in the social contract.