Gasoline prices are at their lowest since 2021: will the trend last at the pump?

Fuel prices at the pump are at their lowest in four years. In July 2025, the average price of diesel was €1.62, while a liter of unleaded 95 sold for an average of €1.66. This is 8 and 13 cents less, respectively, compared to the same month last year.

How can we explain this decline? "The combination of two favorable factors," Francis Pousse, president of service stations and new energies at Mobilians, explained on RMC this Friday. "On the one hand, a relatively low barrel—it's hovering around $68/72—and on the other, a strong euro. Since we buy a barrel in dollars, the stronger the euro, the less it costs us at the pump, and that's a good thing."

The geopolitical situation no longer seems to have a lasting impact on the global market, continues Francis Pousse. "From Ukraine , from Israel-Palestine/Israel-Iran, we see that there is a surge the next day, the day after that, and then the barrel drops back to its levels of 70/75 dollars."

Another element highlighted is production: "OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) brought back more than expected, first in a first phase in May (140,000 barrels/day) then 400,000 barrels/day in July. The more supply there is, while global demand is relatively sluggish due to the economy, the more it lowers prices," explains Francis Pousse.

According to market expectations, the cartel is expected to revise its production quotas upwards again for September by adding more than 500,000 barrels per day, reports Agence-France-Presse, which points out that in theory, a significant increase in crude reserves is likely to weigh down the price of black gold.

"There is plenty of oil available: American production and the desire of oil-producing countries to regain market share, and therefore to put more oil on the market. On the other hand, there is a demand that is not extremely high," Jean-Pierre Favennec, a professor at Paris-Dauphine, told RMC .

"There is little chance of any major developments in August," says Francis Pousse.

According to the latter, we should not expect any major price fluctuations in the coming weeks. "We can never predict long-term trends, but the fundamentals show that there is little chance of major changes in the price of a barrel in August," he said.

Despite the uncertainty, the customs duties imposed by the Trump administration are also not expected to have any impact, at least not on the French market, in the short term. "At this stage, no customs tax is planned in this regard on American oil imports into France," Francis Pousse points out.

The EU's promise is to buy $750 billion worth of American oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and nuclear fuel over three years. "The problem is that the Americans don't have the logistical capacity to export that much oil," says Philippe Charlez, an energy expert in La Dépêche du Midi .

"If Europe buys more from the United States, it will buy less elsewhere. But that doesn't really change the overall balance between supply and demand, and therefore it doesn't have an immediate effect on crude oil prices," he believes.

What about competition in France that could drive down prices? "Our benchmark is the price of a barrel," replies Francis Pousse. "Competition is there all year round. France is the European country most affected by the dominance of supermarkets: 63% for supermarkets and 37% for our networks. Competition is present full-time, but all year round."

It should also be noted that E.Leclerc and Super U are launching the "fuel at cost price" operation this weekend, Friday and Saturday, meaning that the two brands are giving up their margins.

"It's even cheaper, it's a drop of a few cents, but we don't have the right to lower prices below "cost price," boasts Michel-Edouard Leclerc on X. "There's no doubt that competitors in the mass retail sector will seek to challenge Leclerc."