Confidence vote: online bettors are 89% betting on François Bayrou's fall

Does François Bayrou still have a chance of spending the winter at Matignon? 89% of users of the American online betting site Polymarket now believe not. This assessment is neither scientific nor definitive. It in no way predicts the future. But the trend in bets placed since the beginning of the week reveals the sudden change in perspective of many observers following the decision, announced Monday, August 25, by the Prime Minister, to submit to a vote of confidence by the deputies.

Founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, a young cryptocurrency enthusiast, Polymarket is, along with its rival Kalshi, one of the leading platforms specializing in betting on the outcome of current events . Fans can bet money and cryptocurrencies on thousands of very varied topics. Among the most popular at the moment: the name of the future Democratic candidate for the 2028 US election, that of the next Nobel Peace Prize winner (Donald Trump is predicted to win by 10%), or the possibility of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine in 2025 (only 24% believe it will). The platform receives a commission on every dollar invested.

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