May 1st: Le Pen and Bardella intend to show their unity in Narbonne where 5,000 people are expected

In the sub-prefecture of Aude, a department that has become the promised land of the National Rally for having elected a deputy from the far-right party in each of its three constituencies, the two leaders first have to put on a show of force.

The aim is also to show that nothing changes on this May 1st, a symbolic date for the party which had initially made it an annual tribute to Joan of Arc in Paris under the presidency of Jean-Marie Le Pen, before his daughter changed the format, between a "republican banquet" and wreath laying in the provinces.

Weakened by her conviction on March 31 to four years in prison, two of which were suspended, and, above all, five years of ineligibility with immediate effect , Marine Le Pen had subsequently attempted to galvanize her troops during a rally in Paris.

But the approximately 7,000 people who responded to the call on April 6 were far from enough to fill the square in front of the Invalides, leaving the impression of a semi-failure.

The RN prefers to emphasize an influx of memberships, claiming more than 100,000 cards, including 20,000 new ones since the judgment of the Paris criminal court.

The Occitan meeting must also convince of the permanence of the party's strategy for the 2027 presidential election, with Marine Le Pen still claiming to be "the natural candidate" .

This "plan A" is, however, conditional on the decision of the magistrates who will judge the appeal of the case of the MEPs' assistants, and whose decision is expected "in the summer of 2026" .

If Le Pen "is run over by a truck"

The entourage of the three-time unsuccessful presidential candidate has made it known in recent days that if her ineligibility is confirmed with "provisional execution," she will immediately hand over to Jordan Bardella. This is without waiting for a hypothetical decision from the Court of Cassation, as it seems illusory that it could intervene in time to be able to compete.

Until then, the RN is faced with a dilemma whose drawbacks it is already experiencing.

Because if the party relies solely on Le Pen's candidacy, it risks appearing unprepared in the event of a legal impediment. Conversely, if it decides to suggest a "Plan B" like Bardella, it fuels speculation about a rivalry between the two leaders, and could even encourage the grassroots to demand that the candidacy of last year's European champion be formalized immediately.

By declaring to Le Parisien on Saturday that "if (Marine Le Pen) were to be prevented from running tomorrow, I think I can tell you that I will be her candidate" , the man who will be thirty in September provoked a few raised eyebrows among the Le Penist ranks.

And if the "boss" intended to stifle any controversy, she reminded journalists on Tuesday that she will be " the presidential candidate" . The "plan B" ? "If I were to be run over by a truck tomorrow, well, (Jordan Bardella) would very obviously be the person who would be called upon to replace me" , she simply admitted, a way of better referring the hypothesis to a form of incongruity.

However, several questions remain unanswered. If Marine Le Pen is not sentenced on appeal to immediate ineligibility, but is found guilty of embezzlement and sentenced to imprisonment, the National Rally will have to choose between her candidacy, which has been tainted by criminal disgrace, and that of Jordan Bardella , who has never been prosecuted in the court case.

The two leaders, who like to highlight the polls of voting intentions for the first round of the presidential election - both would come out on top by a wide margin, receiving between 30% and 35% of the vote - will also have to overcome a persistent glass ceiling between now and the election: facing Edouard Philippe, Mr. Bardella and Ms. Le Pen are only credited with 44% in the second round, according to an Odoxa study published Tuesday.