Poland: Migration, defense, abortion... Poles called to the polls for a crucial presidential election

In the second round of the Polish presidential election this Sunday, Rafal Trzaskowski, 53, pro-EU mayor of Warsaw and ally of the centrist government, faces nationalist historian Karol Nawrocki, 42, who is supported by the Law and Justice (PiS) party of incumbent conservative President Andrzej Duda. Polls predict a particularly close election. Karol Nawrocki has 50.1% of the vote and Rafal Trzaskowski has 49.9%, a tiny difference that is within the margin of error.

Polls will be open until 9 p.m. in this EU and NATO member country, which borders Ukraine and remains a staunch supporter of its neighbor as it defends itself against Russia. An exit poll is expected as soon as the polls close, but the final result is not expected until Monday.

A victory for Rafal Trzaskowski would provide a major boost to the progressive agenda of the government led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, a former president of the European Council. This could lead to significant social changes such as the introduction of civil partnerships for same-sex couples and a relaxation of abortion laws, which are currently virtually banned. The president of Poland, a country of 38 million people, has the power to veto legislation and is also the head of the armed forces.

A victory for Karol Nawrocki would strengthen the populist Law and Justice party, which governed Poland between 2015 and 2023, and could lead to new parliamentary elections. Many of Karol Nawrocki's supporters want stricter restrictions on immigration and greater sovereignty for their country within the European Union.

Political expert Anna Materska-Sosnowska called the election a "true clash of civilizations" due to the significant policy differences between the candidates. Many of Rafal Trzaskowski's voters support greater integration with the EU and accelerated social reforms in the country, which has a fast-growing economy.

The election is also being closely watched in neighboring Ukraine, which is seeking to bolster international diplomatic support for its difficult negotiations with Russia. Karol Nawrocki, an admirer of U.S. President Donald Trump , opposes Kyiv's NATO membership and has called for restrictions on benefits for about a million Ukrainian refugees in Poland. In the final hours of his campaign on Friday, he laid flowers at a monument to Poles killed by Ukrainian nationalists during World War II.

The final outcome of the election is expected to depend on Rafal Trzaskowski's ability to mobilize enough supporters, and on the willingness of far-right voters to switch their votes to Karol Nawrocki. Far-right candidates together received more than 21% of the vote in the first round, which Rafal Trzaskowski narrowly won with 31% of the vote , compared to 30% for Karol Nawrocki.