Referendum, taxes, social plans... What to expect from Emmanuel Macron's interview this Tuesday evening

Operation Reconquest. Relatively discreet on the French scene in recent months with the exception of surprise trips , omnipresent on the international scene , Emmanuel Macron wants to regain control almost eleven months after the dissolution fiasco.

On the agenda: an interview on TF1 in a new format to discuss "the challenges facing France" as well as probably his last major measures before leaving the Élysée in spring 2027.

The first topic on the table: the organization of one, or even several, referendums on the same day. Regularly raised by the head of state in recent years, and mentioned again during his New Year's greetings to the French people on December 31 , the organization of a major consultation of the French people will most likely be announced by the president.

Will he follow in François Bayrou's footsteps? The Prime Minister has explained that he wants to hold a referendum on the recovery of public finances last April. This method aims to give breathing space to the Prime Minister, who knows he risks censure during the next state and social security budgets next fall.

If the French people agree to cut public spending, it would then become very difficult for the National Assembly to overthrow the head of government, ensuring the centrist remains in office. But in Macron's party, not many people believe this hypothesis.

"I don't see him going down this path simply because the Constitutional Council could quite easily say no to a referendum on this issue," explains a Renaissance MP.

And for good reason: Article 34 of the Constitution specifies that it is up to Parliament to "determine the resources and responsibilities of the State."

Another trial balloon for François Bayrou that could be ruled out: a referendum on retirement. The idea launched by the Prime Minister last February sparked anger among social partners, who met in a conclave to "improve" the reform of the retirement age of 64.

"In hindsight, this will probably be the only major reform of his second five-year term. It's a no-go, especially in a context where savings are being sought everywhere," explains a ministerial advisor.

In the Assembly, many are raising the issue of several referendums that could be organized on the same day "with very concerning subjects" such as the ban on screens or telephones for the youngest, already mentioned by the Head of State during a press conference in January 2024 and then in June 2024 .

Another topic potentially on the table: the organization of a referendum on local authorities to simplify the different levels of responsibility.

"It seems a bit daunting, but when you explain to people that it would be good if schools and garbage collection were managed by the same people to cost less and be more efficient, it speaks to them," captions a Macronist senator.

As for consulting the French people on openness to assisted dying, not many people believe it. "We're currently debating this in the National Assembly , which would be very strange," remarks a member of parliament involved in the issue. Not to mention that the president has already organized a Citizens' Convention on the matter .

The second topic on the table: the cascade of redundancy plans in recent months, from Jennyfer to Vercorex, via ArcelorMittal and Auchan . The number of job seekers has seen a sharp rise in recent months (+3.9% for those without employment).

Such an increase is unprecedented in a decade outside of the Covid-19 crisis. This is enough to significantly diminish the record of Emmanuel Macron, who has consistently highlighted his employment record in recent years.

"He has no control over this. It's all up to the Ministry of Finance, but I think he's going to make a plea to say that we must continue to be a pro-business country and, above all, not increase taxes for businesses," sums up a former LR minister.

The 2025 state budget targeted the most profitable companies with revenues exceeding one billion euros, such as LVMH and EDF. This brought in eight billion euros.

Although the Minister of the Economy has already explained on BFMTV that the system "will not be renewed" as it stands , it is highly likely that the participation of the most profitable companies in the national effort will arise again in the coming months.

Last October, Emmanuel Macron had already called for this measure to be "limited" in time . We must "not overtax" businesses because "we don't have much room for fiscal maneuver," the head of state explained the day after François Bayrou's general policy speech. Suffice it to say that the president has every chance of reiterating that he is opposed to a long-term increase for the most profitable companies.

Third hot topic: the possible question of raising taxes on the French in an attempt to redress public finances. A real casus belli for the head of state, who has abolished both the television license and the housing tax while reducing taxes for the wealthiest.

"We've been trying to lower taxes at a time when people are living better. We're not going to raise them when everyone is watching their wallets. The president will probably just remind us of common sense," says a Renaissance MP.

For now, no increase in VAT or income tax—paid by half of French taxpayers—is on the table. But the de-indexation of retirement pensions and the end of the tax allowance for retirees remain at the back of François Bayrou's mind, as does the "modest contribution" to finance municipal public services advocated by his Minister of Communities, François Rebsamen.

As for the exceptional contribution for the most well-off voted last January, which affects single people from 250,000 euros per year and 500,000 euros for a couple, it has every chance of being made permanent .

"I think he'll say that we need to be careful about all this, but without going into too much detail. He still has bad memories of the CSG (General Social Contribution) for retirees," recalls a former Renaissance MP. After increasing it in 2018 for some retirees, the head of state ultimately backtracked.

Fourth hot topic: the international scene, more than 100 days after Donald Trump's return to the White House.

Emmanuel Macron is expected to return at length to the issue of customs duties being pushed by the American billionaire, which could weigh on many French export sectors, such as wine, automobiles, and aeronautics. For now, European goods are targeted by additional customs duties of 20%.

While inflation has fallen in the eurozone in recent months, while remaining high, trade tensions are likely to push it up again.

"He will probably point out that all this could clearly increase prices in France and that he will continue to fight at the European level," explains a Modem MP, who is well-versed in economic issues.

"I can see him saying in passing that all those who say that we would be better off without the European Union are less clever at the moment," this elected official continues, taking aim at the National Rally.

As for the proposed truce between Russia and Ukraine, which has been on the table since the visit of the head of state and other European counterparts to Kiev last weekend, it should give Emmanuel Macron something to chew on when he calls for an increase in the defense budget.

Last April, François Bayrou confirmed an additional effort of 3 billion euros in 2026. Will the head of state defend an even higher figure, particularly in the event of the presence of a reassurance force on the ground with "a deterrent character with regard to a potential Russian aggression", as he explained last March during a meeting in Paris with around thirty countries?

The question arises, as does the precise outline of this system . How many soldiers should be sent when most European countries are struggling to recruit for their armies? What equipment should be used? Who should command and with what mandate? These are all answers awaited by France's European partners if the truce between Kiev and Moscow takes shape.