West urged to grasp 'last opportunity' to stop Iran making nuclear bomb

As Israel hit the fundamentalist Islamic Republic's nuclear sites overnight on Thursday an expert in Middle Easrern politics has warned time is running out for the United States to prevent Iran from enriching enough uranium to build a nuclear weapon. Gregg Roman, executive director of the Middle East Forum, said with Iran accelerating its nuclear programme and Ayatollah Khamenei’s outright rejection of US proposals, Washington’s window to act without military force is rapidly closing.

Mr Roman, speaking prior to the raids, told Express.co.uk: “This moment offers the last opportunity before Iran rebuilds proxy capabilities or achieves nuclear weapons. The United States retains leverage to deter Iran's nuclear ambitions without military action.” Washington’s toolkit extends beyond sanctions to what he calls the “human terrain element”, Mr Roman stressed – in other words, empowering Iranian civil society through technology and targeted support.

He pointed to the regime’s “fundamental weaknesses,” highlighting a truckers’ strike in May that “spread to more than 150 cities, halting freight and shuttering assembly lines".

Electricity blackouts, worsened by the IRGC’s cryptocurrency mining draining the national grid, create additional vulnerabilities inside Iran.

Mr Roman said: “Washington can intensify pressure through seizing Iranian oil tankers, sanctioning third-party shippers, freezing IRGC cryptocurrency wallets, and pushing the IAEA Board toward a referral that would trigger snapback sanctions.” He added these steps “would impact Iran before force becomes necessary.”

The Middle East Forum advocates “making sanctions permanent attrition tools rather than bargaining chips,” while specifically targeting Iran’s sanctions-evasion schemes that benefit Russia.

Mr Roman pointed out that the multilateral context which enabled past agreements has effectively collapsed. He cited Russia’s partnership with Iran, China’s focus on displacing American influence, and Europe’s lack of leverage.

Iran views its domestic enrichment programme as “a means of asserting sovereignty and ensuring regime survival,” he said.

The risk of escalation has increased following Khamenei’s recent “rude and arrogant” dismissal of US demands. Mr Roman warned this public insult “could trigger a response” from US President Donald Trump, who “views Iranian provocations as tests of his resolve.”

He said the current US approach focuses on “financial escalation before kinetic action.”

Iran’s nuclear defiance is driven by both internal and regional factors. The regime faces crises including a legitimacy collapse, economic devastation with 60% of the population below the poverty line, succession uncertainty with Khamenei at 85, nationwide protests, and cash shortages forcing a quadrupled IRGC budget allocation.

Mr Roman said: “The nuclear program serves as a survival guarantee for a regime deprived of its terrorism and warfare tools.” He explained Tehran’s strategists “read Israel’s multi-front posture and America’s distractions as a strategic opening.”

Austrian intelligence reports that “a bomb would expand and consolidate dominance in the Middle East.” A nuclear deterrent would free Iran to press missile and proxy advantages without fear of retaliation.

He added Syria’s loss, Hezbollah’s 80% arsenal reduction, and the collapse of the Shi’ite axis make nuclear weapons urgent as a compensatory deterrent. Without proxy forces, Iran faces exposure to strikes, making the nuclear programme its insurance policy.

Mr Roman said: “This creates danger: a cornered regime races toward nuclear weapons as a survival guarantee, driven by internal needs to shore up credentials before succession and external calculations to exploit adversary weaknesses.”

Backchannel diplomacy continues but has reached a dead end at the political level. Mr Roman said: “Channels remain open for crisis de-escalation, but Khamenei’s May 20 speech halted text drafting.”

He explained Iran refuses to halt enrichment, while the US demands zero enrichment. Iran recently drafted a negative response to US proposals. US envoy Steve Witkoff’s departure from talks two weeks ago “signals problems beyond scheduling", he suggested.

Mr Roman said: “Iran’s diplomatic engagement is genuine tactically but hollow strategically,” with the regime buying time and avoiding concessions while maintaining its nuclear infrastructure. He added: “While negotiations precede harsher options, there is doubt that Iran will uphold any bargain or commit to dismantling their program.”

Iran’s proxy network has long been a cornerstone of its nuclear deterrence. Hezbollah’s 150,000 missiles and 80,000 fighters previously created a formidable threat around Israel, making strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities potentially catastrophic.

Mr Roman said: “Iran’s axis lies in ruin.” Hezbollah’s arsenal is down 80%, leadership decimated. Hamas barely subsists. Syria’s fall ended Iran’s arms pipeline.

He added the Houthis and Iraqi militias “maintain capacity — Houthis sustain missile fire under Israel strikes, albeit reducing Red Sea attacks.”

Proxy degradation creates both opportunity and risk. Mr Roman said Iran faces exposure to nuclear facility strikes, which “creates a one-time window of opportunity.”

Since the October 7 attacks, the regime “accelerated nuclear activities”. Losses in 2024 may push Khamenei toward a nuclear breakout before the deterrent erodes further.

Mr Roman said: “In a future conflict, proxies would still play a role. Hezbollah retains precision missiles threatening Israel’s north, potentially diverting Israeli intelligence from nuclear sites.”

He added: “Iranian missiles would target Israeli cities while Houthis escalate and Revolutionary Guard assets activate against Israeli and Jewish targets overseas.” However, their reduced capacity means Iran increasingly relies on its nuclear programme over proxies for deterrence.

Washington can gain leverage by treating proxy rollback and nuclear issues as one theatre Mr Roman arguing, adding thats "proxy" losses demonstrate that “bombs won’t guarantee regional primacy".

Speaking on Thursday, Mr Trump insisted he wants to avoid conflict and added: “Very simply, they can't have a nuclear weapon. We're not going to allow that."