An energy superpower? Oilpatch skeptical of Carney's support for the sector

Despite Mark Carney's pledges throughout the election campaign to kick-start the country's economy, build energy corridors and transform the country into an energy superpower, many in the oilpatch are unconvinced there will be any change in policy direction from the re-elected federal Liberals.

Grant Fagerheim, CEO of oil company Whitecap Resources, woke up early Tuesday morning only to feel frustrated and anxious by the results of Monday's election.

After a decade of the Liberals in power, Fagerheim described a feeling of disappointment among many in Calgary's downtown office towers where energy companies are headquartered.

"It's very challenging for us in Western Canada and especially when you work in the energy sector, to bring them back into power again," he said.

"Quite frankly, it's astonishing."

For years, oilpatch leaders have chastised the Liberal government for introducing policies that harm the sector such as the clean fuel regulations, the proposed emissions cap, and changes to the federal assessment of major projects.

There's so much at stake right now. We can't afford to trip— Deborah Yedlin, Calgary Chamber of Commerce

After replacing Justin Trudeau as prime minister last month, Carney made campaign pledges that would be more supportive of the oilpatch. Oil and natural gas is the country's largest export to the United States.

"There is a general sense of unease in terms of how the Liberals will move forward on an agenda that we know is very important to Alberta," said Deborah Yedlin, president of the Calgary Chamber of Commerce.

"There's so much at stake right now. We can't afford to trip. We must make sure that we're focused on the future," she said, especially considering the ongoing trade war with the U.S.

In a recent survey of energy executives and investors, ATB Capital Markets found that "federal energy and environmental policies" were ranked as the top risk facing the Canadian energy sector.

Seventy-three per cent of those surveyed said a Liberal minority government would be negative toward their willingness to invest in Canadian energy, ATB analysts wrote in a report Tuesday morning.

In his victory speech Monday night, Carney vowed to make Canada a "superpower" of both clean and conventional energy, and promised to "build, baby, build" — an apparent reference to U.S. President Donald Trump's pledge on oil drilling.

"It's time to build new trade and energy corridors working in partnership with the provinces, territories and Indigenous peoples," he said.

On the campaign trail, upon meeting with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, Carney suggested he might be willing to move away from the concept of an emissions cap on the oil and gas industry, which has been criticized by the oilpatch as a de facto cap on production.

Carney has also said he is committed to making Canada's oil industry more competitive.

"The commitment is to deliver projects like those that we agreed are national priorities," Carney said in March. "It's about getting, yes, pipelines built across this country so that we can displace imports of foreign oil."

Western Canada produces millions of barrels of oil everyday, but parts of Eastern Canada import oil because there are no pipelines running across the country.

The Liberal platform promised to get major projects approved more quickly, instead of the current process which can take several years.

Adam Waterous, CEO of the Waterous Energy Fund and executive chairman of Strathcona Resources, says Carney has been responding to a shift in public sentiment in favour of the Canadian energy sector.

A recent Nanos poll, for example, found that roughly three out of four Canadians now support the construction of a new east-west pipeline.

The problem, says Waterous, is that the private sector has been unable to build new energy infrastructure in recent years because investors aren't coughing up money for these projects.

He was part of a group of CEOs who sent a letter to the federal candidates during the campaign, asking for changes such as the elimination of the federal emissions cap and the repeal of the federal carbon levy on large emitters.

"Get rid of all that, you're going to have private-sector investment," said Waterous.

So far, Carney hasn't committed to those specific demands. Waterous says that leaves the federal government with one option to get new pipelines built: to use a Crown corporation.

That's not unheard of. The Trans Mountain expansion pipeline is owned by the federal government, and the CEO of the Crown corporation recently floated the idea that Ottawa could retain ownership for the long term.

"This is not a big deviation from the philosophy of the government now," said Waterous. "It doesn't maybe shock me that he didn't campaign on creating Petro-Canada 2.0 but yeah, it's the only logical conclusion."

Carney is no stranger to Alberta as he grew up in Edmonton. Besides his past roles as governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, Carney held the role of UN special envoy for climate action and finance, and also advocated for the global financial sector to invest in net-zero emissions.

In a note Tuesday morning, Royal Bank analyst Maurice Choy said investors will be keen to see how Carney's platform translates into energy policy, particularly around increasing intra-Canada and international energy trade and continuing the country's decarbonization journey.

"Companies that have clean energy growth projects may benefit from certain Liberal initiatives, including the federal investment tax credits, the carbon contracts for differences, federal output-based pricing system for large emitters, and the potential east-west electricity grid," wrote Choy.

"For [the midstream sector], we look forward to the more supportive permitting landscape for major energy infrastructure projects that the party campaigned on, and how the party may build Canada into a 'superpower in both clean and conventional energy.'"

In recent years, the oilpatch has enjoyed historic profits as commodity prices soared following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. At the same time, Canadian oil production has continued to grow to set new records.

So far, in 2025, oil prices have softened considerably and dropped on Monday to about $60 US per barrel in North America. At those prices, companies could begin slashing investment and cutting jobs.

Still, for Fagerheim, the CEO of Whitecap, he is adamant the bigger concern right now is the election result and whether Carney will actually pivot the Liberal party's policies toward the sector.

"We've got the same band with a different singer," he said.