Today's best bets: Knicks-Pacers, Oilers-Stars highlight top picks from model, experts

The Indiana Pacers can advance to the NBA Finals for just the second time in franchise history -- and the first time in a quarter century -- when they face the New York Knicks in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Thursday at Madison Square Garden in New York City. After winning Game 4 in Indianapolis, 130-121, the Pacers lead the best-of-seven series, 3-1. A win by Indiana on would earn the franchise a date in the NBA Finals with the Oklahoma City Thunder, who eliminated the Minnesota Timberwolves on Wednesday. Despite the Pacers leading the series, the Knicks opened as 5.5-point favorites. They have since dropped to 4-point favorites as 72% of the public money has come in on Indiana.

In the NHL on Thursday, the Edmonton Oilers can set up a rematch of last year's Stanley Cup Final against the Florida Panthers when Connor McDavid & Co. battle the Dallas Stars in Game 5 of the Western Conference Final at the American Airlines Center in Dallas. After losing Game 1 of the series, the Oilers have won three straight games and are one victory away from matching up again with the Panthers, who knocked out the Carolina Hurricanes on Wednesday night. The Stars are -131 favorites to force a Game 6 while the Oilers are +111 underdogs.

Both playoff games are featured in today's best bets at CBS Sports, along with an MLB slate that includes the Phillies' Zack Wheeler and the Braves' Chris Sale squaring off in the second game of a doubleheader in Philadelphia and a WNBA schedule that features Paige Bueckers and the Dallas Wings going for their second win of the season. Plus, we'll share a few bonus Belmont Stakes and U.S. Open golf picks from SportsLine experts as well below, along with featured sportsbook promos from some of the best sports betting apps for those who live in states where betting on sports is legal.

Today's top betting model picks

Parlay odds at DraftKings: +2622

The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons, believes there is value in playing the Pacers to win at plus-money. Why? According to Stephen Oh, SportsLine's principal data engineer and the man behind the model, while the insertion of Mitchell Robinson into the starting lineup has solidified New York's significant rebounding advantage, it has not helped limit Indiana's 3-point shooting. (The Pacers have shot 41%, 43% and 41% in their three wins.) The model projects Indiana to hit 37% of 35 3-point attempts on Thursday and New York to hit just 34% of 33 attempts. The six-point differential more than offsets the three points that the Knicks get from their rebounding advantage.

In the NHL, the model is backing the Stars to force a Game 6 in the Western Conference Finals. They have played excellently at home this season, earning 29 wins during the regular season, sixth most in all of hockey. They are 7-2 at home during the playoffs. In addition, the Oilers will be without key forward Zach Hyman, who has five goals and 11 points in 15 playoff games and brought a physical style of play to the ice. The model says that Dallas wins in 59.0% of simulations, and the model also has 5-star plays on Edmonton's Connor McDavid (-128, BetMGM) and Leon Draisaitl (-182, DraftKings) to finish with Under 1.5 points.

George Springer hasn't homered since May 11, but the model likes the possibility of a Springer Dinger on Thursday. He is set to face a lefty in the Athletics' Jacob Lopez. Four of Springer's five home runs this season have come against lefties, even though just 30 of his 159 at-bats have come against southpaws. FanDuel has the best price on a Springer home run, at +520.

Today's expert best bets

Bruce Marshall, who is 34-29 (+809) in his last 63 MLB picks, is riding Tampa Bay to end Houston's four-game winning streak. Rookie Ryan Gusto takes the mound for the Astros, who have lost each of his last four starts. Meanwhile the Rays' Shane Baz is coming off his best start in more than a month, allowing only one earned run on four hits across 5.2 innings in a 3-1 win over the Blue Jays. Tampa Bay has won seven of its last eight games, a stretch that began with two wins over the Astros.

SportsLine NBA guru Mike Barner, who is 174-120 (+3338) with his last 294 NBA player props picks, likes Knicks guard Josh Hart to go Over 8.5 total rebounds in Game 5. Despite coming off the bench in Games 3 and 4, he had 10 and 11 rebounds, respectively. He has reached double-digit rebounds in three of four games in this series against the Pacers, who allowed the ninth-most rebounds per game during the regular season. "He feeds off the energy of the home crowd, so I like his chances of hitting this Over," Barner says.

In the WNBA, betting writer Max Meyer is taking the Valkyries (+18) to cover against the Liberty. Meyer notes that during the Breanna Stewart-Sabrina Ionescu-Jonquel Jones era, there have been nine instances of New York playing the same team in consecutive games. In the first leg, the Liberty have won by an average of 14.5 points per game. In the second leg, the Liberty have won by an average of 10.1 per game. "This is certainly a noticeable pattern to me," Meyer says. "New York just trounced Golden State by 28 points on Tuesday at home, so this sets up a sleepier spot for the Liberty with these two facing each other once again in Brooklyn on Thursday."

SportsLine expert Matt Severance is 158-84-8 (+3742.5) in his last 250 NHL picks and is sticking with the Stars in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals. "Edmonton is clearly the better team, but Dallas is playing for its season Thursday and has been much better at home in these playoffs," Severance says.

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