Emissions fines: who could pay more in Italy and how much

There is a scarecrow that is hovering over car manufacturers and it is not that of a further drop in sales on the European market. Fines on CO2 emissions are terrifying: from January 1, 2025, in fact, more stringent targets for new registrations have been triggered (from 115.1 g/km, we move to an average target of 93.6 g/km), with the threat of heavy sanctions for manufacturers who exceed them. Much more will be understood on March 5, when the European Union's recovery plan for the sector is presented. That said, Dataforce has tried to simulate the balance of the fines accumulated in January, based on the new limits. For the simulation, in the face of a market in Italy of 134,652 new cars and an excess of more than 25 points compared to the EU target (119 g/km against 93.6 g/km), the manufacturers would already be 321 million euros short in one month. And among the most penalized brands there would be Audi (with a 34 million fine), Fiat (28 million) and Volkswagen (26). While Byd and Toyota would be the most virtuous brands, with credits of 6 and 2 million euros respectively. And it doesn't end there because, if we were to add the 49 million fines due to the exceeding of emissions of light commercial vehicles (190 g/km of CO2 against a European target of 153.9 g/km) sold in January, the total balance of the sanctions would rise to 370 million euros. From here, a simulation on an annual basis: the sanctions could fluctuate between 3 billion and 4.5 billion euros, depending on which scenario is hypothesized for the automotive market.

The cases analyzed are two: one, more optimistic and hoped for by many, foresees the cancellation of sanctions on CO2 in 2025, and therefore a change of direction by Brussels towards a softer electric transition, the other, clearly more "black", instead imagines the confirmation of the current sanctioning system. In the most optimistic hypothesis, in which a volume of 1,623,000 cars is envisaged (+3.42% on 2024) and 185,000 light commercial vehicles (-1.82% on 2024), the car manufacturers would find themselves paying over 4.5 billion euros in fines, of which approximately 3.9 billion generated by cars and approximately 600 million by light commercial vehicles. In the worst-case scenario, the one in line with the current environmental dictates of Brussels, there would be a drastic drop in registrations, which would plummet to 1,109,000 units for cars (-29.33% on 2024), and 120,200 for light commercial vehicles (-36.21% on 2024). In essence, in the name of the electric transition , manufacturers would have to cut production and sales of cars by over half a million units, obtaining in exchange a reduction in fines to 3 billion euros, of which approximately 2.6 billion generated by cars and approximately 400 million by light commercial vehicles. Still a lot of money, let it be clear, but not the absolute disaster that is envisaged.

There is another aspect that is underestimated: how the fuel mix would change based on the different scenarios considered. For example, in the worst case scenario, the one that foresees a sharp drop in registrations, the only cars to benefit would be plug-in hybrids (+6.1%) and, obviously, fully electric cars, whose sales would grow by 71.4%, reaching 114,000 units and breaking through the 10% market share. For the record, data from Unrae, the union of foreign manufacturers in Italy, indicate that last month plug-in hybrids registered (it is known that this does not always correspond to sales) grew by 18% compared to January 2024 and electric cars by 125.1%. It is evidently no coincidence. The most penalized, however, would be full hybrids (-45%), followed by LPG cars (-41.6%). While petrol cars (including mild hybrids) would suffer a contraction of 36.7% and diesel cars of 28.3%. Even in the most optimistic market hypothesis, which foresees a level of registrations just above that reached in 2024, the Dataforce simulation assumes a volume of 114,000 units for electric cars, but with a share limited to 7%. While hybrids would grow the most (+24.2%), with full hybrids at +32.5% and plug-in hybrids at +5.2%. Diesel cars, on the other hand, would suffer a sharp contraction (-24.5%), while petrol (+3.2%) and LPG (+5.3%) cars would grow moderately.