Duties, Trump's plan for the EU: where are the negotiations at?

Donald Trump extends his hand to the EU, but European leaders do not trust him. Despite statements of optimism on trade agreements and the opening for a further one-month postponement of the entry into force of the duties on July 9, the unpredictability of the tycoon's moves does not allow us to exclude new surprises.

This is demonstrated by the sudden closure to dialogue with Canada , which the US president slammed the door in the face by bringing the European Union into the mix. The good intentions shown through the agreement signed with the United Kingdom and the truce on tariffs reached with China are not enough to completely dampen the United States' global trade offensive, the effects of which will be different from country to country.

The point on the negotiations

The 90-day extension on tariffs after the “Liberation Day” of April 2 had started the negotiation phase with a 10% quota at customs for all. Since then, the negotiations carried out by the United States with the rest of the world have borne little fruit.

The agreement reached with the United Kingdom , with the reduction of duties on automotive from 25 to 10%, has encouraged Donald Trump, who in the White House conference assured an “imminent” pact with India and ready protocols with 4 or 5 countries, while the American Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessent, declared that dialogues are underway with 18 key trading partners for the USA.

The tycoon warned, however, that finding an agreement with the 200 countries with which negotiations are underway will not be possible and some of these will have to pay duties.

The Truce with China

From the White House, Trump has meanwhile announced that the hottest front in the trade war, with China , has cooled thanks to the consolidation of the truce signed in recent weeks.

From 145% duties against Beijing, the US has lowered the percentage to 30, while the Dragon's response of 125% has been scaled down to 10%. The framework agreement provides for the acceleration of Chinese exports of rare earths, magnets, components for the electronics, automotive and biomedical industries.

Negotiations with the European Union

The game with the European Union is still to be played. The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, announced that she has received the latest counter-proposal on duties from the American administration.

The conditions were discussed by European leaders at the European Council held over the last two days, but the debate among the 27 is still open, between those like German Chancellor Friedrich Merz who want to close the deal quickly, as does Giorgia Meloni , and those like French President Emmanuel Macron who are not convinced by the agreement.

The point of arrival should include duties of 10% , a threshold considered reasonable by both parties but which would vary greatly depending on the trade chapters. Moreover, the plan has not yet taken a concrete form and the details could make the difference on the success or failure of the negotiations.

Von der Leyen said she was confident that the agreement could be reached by 9 July , but that she was prepared for the possibility that it might not be satisfactory.

A hypothesis that is not at all far-fetched, given that the European Union has once again been called into question as the “ bad guy ” in US trade routes.

The Closing with Canada

The EU, in fact, was dragged into the sudden interruption of negotiations with Canada announced by Donald Trump . An announcement that came shortly after the optimism declared at the White House conference.

In announcing the closure with Ottawa, the US president branded his neighbour as a country with which it is difficult to trade and which for this reason will see the delivery of new US tariffs next week.