Trump's tariffs on Europe: what will happen to the Italian economy? $65 billion worth of exports to the US are in the crosshairs.
The trade war
The common misconception, even in political circles, is that the US tariffs imposed by Trump will hit Italy particularly hard in the food and fashion sectors. In reality, the raw numbers say otherwise.
Donald Trump 's bullying move, when he announced on Saturday in a letter to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen that starting August 1st the EU will see its goods taxed at 30 percent by US customs, took European leaders and others by surprise.
Italy, which had hoped for preferential treatment in light of Giorgia Meloni's alleged "special relationship" with President Trump, instead sees the immediate future looming as a disaster for its companies: in 2024, nearly 48% of Italian exports were destined for non-European countries, with the United States firmly as the primary market for our products, with nearly €65 billion in goods exported overseas and a trade surplus of over €38 billion.
As mentioned, it's not actually the famous "Made in Italy" luxury goods and agri-food that dominates. In fact, the sectors driving Italian exports to the United States—those most at risk given the 30 percent tariffs in effect since August, barring any agreements between the White House and Brussels in the coming weeks—are industrial machinery (€12.8 billion in exports), followed by pharmaceuticals and chemicals (€10 billion), automotive (€7.9 billion before the 25 percent tariff), and only subsequently agri-food (€7.8 billion) and apparel (€5.5 billion).
A dossier compiled by the Confindustria research center explains that, applying three vulnerability criteria (exposure to the American market, "excessive" trade surplus, and strategic importance for Washington), the sectors most at risk from the tariffs imposed by Trump are chemicals and pharmaceuticals, followed by automotive, machinery, and agri-food.
It's not surprising, then, that while Palazzo Chigi is calling for caution in EU-US relations, hoping there will be no "aggressive maneuvers," forgetting that Trump himself was the first to point a gun at their head, associations and federations representing Italian businesses are expressing grave concern about the repercussions of the trade war. The Mestre-based CGIA (Italian Confederation of Italian Wines) has warned of a €35 billion reduction in exports , which Coldiretti calls a "death blow of over €2.3 billion for Made in Italy," while Farmindustria estimates damages of over €4 billion for the pharmaceutical sector. The president of the Italian Wine Union , Lamberto Frescobaldi, warns that a 30% tariff "would be almost an embargo for 80% of Italian wine," as it would be too expensive, thus wiping out exports to US tables.
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