Banco de la República rate expected to close at 8.5%, market says

For June and September, analysts expect the Bank of the Republic's monetary policy benchmark rate to be 9.25% and 8.75%, respectively. This means that no decision on this matter is expected to be made at the June 27 board meeting.

This is indicated by the Fedesarrollo Financial Opinion Survey, in which the analysts surveyed also anticipated that the rate will reach 8.50% in December 2025. See more: Higher education costs in Colombia rise 3.28% in the first half of 2025. In April, the board of directors of the Bank of the Republic reduced the benchmark rate by 25 basis points, setting it at 9.25%. The next meeting at which a decision on the benchmark rate will be made will be on June 27. For June and September, analysts expect the benchmark rate to be 9.25% and 8.75%, respectively.

See more: Higher education costs in Colombia will rise 3.28% in the first half of 2025.

Regarding economic growth, in June, the forecast for this year ranged between 2.5% and 2.6%, with 2.6% as the median response (remaining stable compared to the May survey). The median for 2026 was 2.9%, with a range between 2.7% and 3.0%. Growth expectations for the second quarter of 2025 ranged between 2.3% and 2.6%, with 2.4% as the median response (remaining stable compared to the May survey). Meanwhile, the growth forecast for the third quarter of 2025 was 2.6%. See more: "Strength and Truth": New book by former President Iván Duque

Slow decline in inflation

In May, annual inflation stood at 5.05%, below analysts' forecasts of 5.10%. In June, they estimate it will reach 4.91%, within a range of 4.80% to 4.99%.

Analysts also forecast that inflation will close at 4.78% in December 2025 (down from 4.80% in the May edition), in a range between 4.60% and 5% , so market expectations remain outside the Bank of the Republic's target range (2% - 4%) in 2025. Expectations for the next 12 months (June 2026) are at 3.97%.

See more: Alerts are being raised over the effects of the labor reform on MSMEs: what are they?

In May, the exchange rate closed at $4.149, with a monthly appreciation of 1.2%, reaching its highest value for the month on May 8 ($4.307) and its lowest value on May 30 ($4.107). The observed figure was $85 lower than the May survey's estimate ($4.234) . In June, analysts estimate the exchange rate will range between $4.175 and $4.238, with $4.195 as the median response.

By December 2025, analysts expect an exchange rate of $4,290 , which represents a drop from the previous month's forecast ($4,300).

The debt spread (Embig Colombia) closed at 344 basis points in May (44 basis points lower than in April). In June, 80% of analysts (24.8 percentage points higher than the previous month) expect the spread to widen over the next three months , while the remaining 20% ​​of respondents expect it to remain unchanged (2.8 percentage points higher than the previous month).

See more: The never-ending workday, the new dilemma of digital work. None of the analysts anticipate any decrease in the debt spread (27.6 percentage points less than the previous month).

In the survey, fiscal policy emerged as the most important factor for investment decisions, with 60.9% of analysts choosing it (up from 58.6% the previous month) . Sociopolitical conditions came in second, with 26.1% of respondents (up from 20.7% the previous month).

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