Donald Trump's threats could affect security cooperation with Mexico.

An analysis by the U.S. Congressional Research Service warns that although President Claudia Sheinbaum has shown a willingness to collaborate with the U.S. in combating cartels, President Donald Trump's continued tariff threats, as well as the threat of U.S. military intervention in Mexico, could undermine such cooperation.

The study "Evolution of Security Cooperation between the United States and Mexico," prepared by Latin American affairs specialist Clare Ribando Seelke, highlights that for more than 15 years, the governments of the United States and Mexico have maintained close bilateral cooperation in security matters, as U.S. authorities believe that Mexican cartels continue to pose a threat to the country's national security.

It is even highlighted that the cartels—six of which were designated as terrorist organizations by the State Department in February 2025—are the primary source of methamphetamine and fentanyl seized in the United States, despite the efforts made within the framework of the Mérida Initiative and the renewed Bicentennial Framework, for which Congress has allocated more than $3.6 billion between 2008 and 2023.

However, it is noted that the Trump administration's efforts to combat cartels and their implications for U.S.-Mexico relations have deteriorated since Andrés Manuel López Obrador took office in 2018, as federal security cooperation with the United States has gradually been reduced, with the exception of immigration enforcement.

The report also highlights that while security cooperation deteriorated in various areas, intelligence sharing and cooperation with some states and municipalities, including Mexico City, where current President Claudia Sheinbaum served as head of government, did not.

Attendance increases

In this regard, it is worth highlighting that under Claudia Sheinbaum's administration, there have been increased cooperation actions, such as the deployment of 10,000 National Guard troops to the country's borders to deter the flow of drugs; the dispatch of 55 high-level drug traffickers to the United States; and the government's authorization for U.S. surveillance flights over Mexican territory.

However, she warns that although "President Sheinbaum has shown her willingness to collaborate with U.S. efforts to combat cartels, continued tariff threats or U.S. military action in Mexico could harm cooperation."

This underscores that during his second administration, Trump has demanded the "total elimination" of drug cartels, declared a national emergency on the southern border due to drug trafficking and migration, and imposed a 25% tariff to incentivize Mexico to take further action on these issues.

It was even recalled that in February 2025, U.S. and Mexican officials pledged to "dismantle the cartels (...) and stop the illicit flow of drugs and weapons," while President Trump threatened to increase tariffs on Mexico to 30% for what he called Mexico's insufficient efforts against drug cartels.

In addition, the State Department has revoked the visas of some Mexican politicians for alleged criminal ties, including members of Morena, Sheinbaum's party.

“Despite the tension in relations, Mexican authorities have been acting on the basis of U.S. intelligence to arrest cartel leaders. The Sheinbaum administration has rejected any unilateral U.S. military action against cartels in Mexico (…) The future role of U.S. foreign assistance in supporting counternarcotics initiatives and promoting the rule of law between the United States and Mexico is constantly changing.”

Therefore, the document proposes that the U.S. Congress influence bilateral security cooperation through appropriations, restrictions on foreign assistance, other legislation, or oversight of the Trump administration's approach to bilateral security cooperation.