Self-employment, a lifeline for employment in the first half of the year

Out of a desire to become an entrepreneur or out of necessity? At least in macro terms, self-employment is a refuge from the lack of job opportunities rather than a desire to avoid having a boss. In the first half of the year, it was the type of occupation that grew the most, and this is explained by the weakness of formal employment , experts agree.

According to the National Survey of Occupation and Employment ( ENOE ), self-employment added 673,991 people in the first half of 2025, being the sector that grew the most, its increase was almost three times higher than that of employers, the second type of occupation with the best results.

"It's closely linked to the growth of informality . The increase in self-employment is related to a lower job supply; companies are possibly hiring less, and due to the need for income , self-employment has increased," explains Janneth Quiroz, Director of Economic, Foreign Exchange, and Stock Market Analysis at Monex.

Between January and June of this year, informal employment recorded its highest growth in history for a comparable period, excluding the effects of the pandemic on the labor market. 1.1 million people joined the informal sector .

This trend is linked to the rise in self-employment . Self-employment hasn't seen growth of this magnitude for the first half of the year since 2021, when the labor market was still showing signs of recovery following the COVID-19 pandemic. During that period, the self-employed population grew by 614,312.

To say that people choose to become self-employed out of a desire to be their own bosses is an "anecdotal conclusion," because the figures don't show it's a widespread phenomenon , says Axel Eduardo González, data coordinator for Mexico, ¿Cómo vamos? (MCV).

"In this year's case, it's a situation that arises due to the current performance of our economy, especially the poor performance of secondary activities . People are turning to the informal sector of the economy out of necessity, because there are no better-paying jobs in other sectors with social security," he points out.

At the other end of the spectrum, subordinate work lost 220,564 jobs in the first half of 2025. In the same period last year, this type of employment also reported a negative figure.

What to expect in the short term?

At least in the short term, the labor market's outlook is not so encouraging, which could be reflected in both informality and self-employment.

According to ManpowerGroup's Employment Outlook Survey , only 44% of companies plan to increase their workforce in the third quarter, 37% expect no changes in the size of their workforce, and 16% estimate they will make cuts.

Sixty-five percent of companies acknowledge that national economic uncertainty has a high to moderate impact on their hiring plans.

For Janneth Quiroz, the labor market is likely to continue showing signs of weakness. Enrollment in the Mexican Social Security Institute ( IMSS ) among both employers and workers is not very encouraging, nor is the estimated growth in the Gross Domestic Product ( GDP ). "We expect the labor market weakness we have observed in recent months to continue ."

Axel Eduardo González agrees. “For the remainder of the year, I think it will be a year of very low formal job creation , and in addition, with a stagnation or increase in the informal employment rate. What happened in this first half will be very similar to what we will see in the following months,” he says.

According to MCV, formal employment should grow by 100,000 jobs monthly to meet labor demand, but the cumulative number of jobs so far this year is 87,287 . "It has been a limited generation; by June 2024, there was a cumulative total of 295,058 jobs," the specialist indicates.