Soybean dollars saved June: the agricultural sector sustained the foreign exchange surplus, and one million people purchased USD 2.416 billion.

The June exchange rate balance closed with a positive balance for the first time this year, supported by the liquidations of the agro-export sector and an increase in the Central Bank's (BCRA) reserves . According to the monetary authority, the surplus reached USD 2.158 billion, with net income from goods of USD 3.376 billion. Purchases of dollars by individuals also remained high: one million Argentines purchased foreign currency worth USD 2.416 billion.

The data comes from the latest report, " Evolution of the Foreign Exchange Market and Foreign Exchange Balance ," published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) this Friday. It details that record income from agricultural exports offset net outflows from services (USD 744 million), primary income (USD 465 million), and secondary income (USD 9 million), in addition to the significant deficits reported by 14 of the 21 productive sectors.

The growth of international reserves was another highlight of the month: the BCRA closed June with USD 39.973 billion, representing an increase of USD 3.053 billion compared to May. This result was mainly explained by the inflow of USD 2 billion through passive repo operations (REPO) with BOPREAL securities, plus another USD 1.161 billion from the placement of public debt (including USD 1.5 billion in BONTES).

Also positive was the revaluation of reserve assets of USD 137 million. These increases were partially offset by USD 422 million decreases in banks' foreign currency holdings at the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) and USD 60 million in net payments made through the Local Currency Payment System (SML).

The report revealed that in June, one million people bought tickets for USD 2.416 billion, while some 544,000 sold them for just USD 396 million . The performance was similar to that of May, although with slightly higher figures.

According to the BCRA, a significant portion of these purchases remain deposited in local accounts or are used to pay for credit card purchases, so they do not necessarily translate into external asset formation. However, analysts point out that this phenomenon could generate "latent future demand" if those who spend their own dollars try to rebuild their savings.

Although the overall result was a surplus, the balance by sector of trade in goods shows a warning sign: 14 of the 21 sectors identified posted deficits. Among the most affected were the automotive industry and trade, which accounted for USD 628 million and USD 395 million, respectively .

The real sector surplus (excluding oilseeds and grains) was just USD 929 million. The only sectors that contributed significantly were energy (USD 1.125 billion) and food, beverages, and tobacco (USD 774 million). Agriculture, for its part, contributed more than USD 3.6 billion through the soybean complex.

Regarding tourism and consumption abroad, card payments reached USD 720 million. Seventy percent of these payments were paid directly with customers' own dollars, which reduced the net impact on the foreign exchange market. However, it remains one of the most significant outflow factors.

The financial sector closed June with a deficit of USD 725 million, primarily due to an increase in foreign currency asset holdings and the subscription of securities in that currency. The banking system's overall foreign exchange position reached USD 8.571 billion, 17% more than the previous month.

On the non-financial private sector side, net inflows from financial debt amounted to USD 1.102 billion, with the energy sector leading the way with USD 656 million. Foreign direct investment totaled USD 154 million, while portfolio investments showed a net outflow of USD 205 million.

The National Government and the Central Bank received USD 3.214 billion in revenue, thanks to international loans totaling USD 2.192 billion and debt issuance totaling USD 1.5 billion. This injection of foreign currency was key to sustaining the exchange rate and demonstrates the government's strategy to strengthen the external front.

The volume traded in the foreign exchange market doubled compared to June 2024, reaching USD 37.093 billion. The daily average was USD 1.952 billion, with trading highly concentrated in a few entities and almost entirely dominated by the US dollar, which accounted for 97% of transactions.

Although half of the country's trade in goods continues to show a deficit and Argentines' consumption of foreign currency remains at high levels, the June surplus represents a relief for the government's external affairs. With soybeans as the driving force and an active financing strategy, Milei managed to improve reserves and sustain the market without direct intervention.

However, the data also show that dependence on agriculture and retail demand for dollars remain key factors in the economic equation. Reducing the fiscal deficit and restoring confidence in the peso will be essential to consolidating this trend.