Tariffs and AI put Mexico to the test

Since Donald Trump imposed his first new tariffs on February 12, the effects have been felt. Not only by governments trying to contain the impact, but also by companies adjusting spending, halting investments, redesigning supply chains, and reassessing their global presence. Added to this is another phenomenon of even greater scope: the accelerated expansion of artificial intelligence (AI), which is already changing business models, strategic decisions, and labor structures. Tariffs and algorithms are not only reshaping employment: they are transforming the very functioning of the global economy.

The numbers speak for themselves. Stellantis reported losses of €2.3 billion and estimates that tariffs will cost it another €1 to €1.5 billion this year. Volkswagen and GM are also suffering: the latter lost $1.1 billion in the quarter and forecasts up to $5 billion annually. Faced with this dual pressure—tariff and technological—many automakers are accelerating the automation of their plants. The impact is not only financial, but also on labor: fewer workers, more robots.

The blow extends to other sectors. Stanley Black & Decker anticipates losses of $800 million. Dow Chemical, Pfizer, and Johnson & Johnson report impacts in the hundreds of millions. Whirlpool adjusted its dividend and its stock price fell 13%. Many of these companies are turning to AI to reduce costs, eliminate repetitive tasks, and replace administrative staff. As tariffs make international operations more expensive, AI is replacing people.

In digital commerce, the impact is twofold. Due to tariffs, Shein raised prices by up to 123% and lost 23% of sales in the US. Temu saw half of its users disappear. Amazon reorganized its supply chain, automated warehouses, and laid off tens of thousands of employees to accelerate the digital transition. Every platform is adopting AI to stay competitive in an environment of rising tariffs and unstable consumers.

In Mexico, tariffs on steel, aluminum, vehicles, and tomatoes have already cost 38,000 formal jobs, and could be lost by between 150,000 and 300,000 this year. President Claudia Sheinbaum promises reindustrialization and technical training. But knowing how to weld isn't enough: today, it's necessary to understand automated processes and operate intelligent systems. Without technologically trained workers, new factories will bring robots, not jobs.

The context doesn't help. According to most forecasts, including those from the IMF and the World Bank, GDP will stagnate or contract by 2025. Without internal growth drivers, many companies are turning to automation to survive. Replacing workers with AI seems more viable than exporting amid trade wars.

All of the above occurs with an ill-prepared education system. A reform was pushed through, then a counter-reform followed, and Mexico remains behind: according to the OECD, it ranks 34th out of 38 in digital skills and 36th in technical skills among young people aged 15 to 29. The world won't wait for our country to catch up.

Tariffs and AI are simultaneously transforming economic reality. Adapting isn't optional; it's the only way to stay competitive.

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