The CPI confirms the change in trend and rises again to 2.7% in July, four-tenths more.

Inflation has left the safe haven of around 2% and has soared again in July, reaching 2.7% year-on-year, four-tenths of a percentage point higher than in June and the highest level since February, according to data released Wednesday by the National Statistics Institute (INE), which should be confirmed in two weeks.

This consolidates the reversal of the trend that began last month, after three months of decline, and opens a second half of the year in which we are likely to see higher inflation levels than in the first half . Funcas, for example, estimates that it will reach 3% in September and remain above 2.5% every month, with the annual average ultimately hovering around 2.6%. That is, provided the imposition of tariffs by the US on almost all countries around the world does not have a greater inflationary impact than expected.

INE data show that core inflation —which does not take into account energy products or fresh foods as they are the most volatile—was 2.3% year-on-year, a tenth of a percentage point higher than in June, demonstrating that these factors (energy and unprocessed foods) are precisely responsible for the price increase compared to the same month last year.

The detailed data for this month has not yet been published, but in June, for example, fresh foods (fruit, fish, meat... any unprocessed food) saw price increases of 8% , which has a direct impact on the purchasing power of families, especially those with lower incomes, who spend a higher proportion of their budget on food.

The supermarket gives no respite

"Unprocessed food products saw their inflation rate rise in June from 7.1% to 8%, prolonging the upward trend they have maintained since the end of last year, amplified by the normalization of VAT. Of the 16 subclasses that make up this sub-index, 13 have a rate above 3%, and several of them ( eggs, beef, fruit, and sheep and goat meat ), have double-digit rates . As for energy products, they have risen by 2.1% in June, raising their rate from -2.7% to -0.5%," explained Funcas upon learning the details of last month's data.

This organization forecasts that fresh food prices will maintain increases of around 8% for the rest of the year, with monthly increases that could reach 2.6% in October compared to September, for example.

On a monthly basis, prices in Spain were 0.1% lower this month than in June, the first monthly drop since September of last year, while the underlying price fell two-tenths of a percentage point.

The INE explained that the CPI's 2.7% year-on-year increase is due to "a base effect associated with the fall in electricity prices in July 2024, and, to a lesser extent, higher fuel prices," although the price of fresh food is also strongly driving average prices in Spain.