Wall Street banks project falling inflation until the elections and highlight Javier Milei's macroeconomic policy.

The disinflation recorded in April could continue to strengthen in the coming months, according to estimates released by major Wall Street investment banks and local consulting firms. These projections support the optimism of the economic team led by Luis Caputo , following last month's 2.8% inflation, and confirm that the new macroeconomic regime is having a visible impact on prices.

JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and several private firms agreed that exchange rate stability, the managed float, and the zero-deficit policy are acting as inflation anchors. In the short term, they anticipate a downward trend that could bring inflation below 2% per month before the elections.

The April figure was hailed as a success by international banks. Morgan Stanley emphasized that the figure was below market expectations (which projected 3.2%) and highlighted the strength of the exchange rate system. JP Morgan was more emphatic: it described the result as "the first concrete success" of the Milei plan and asserted that there was no significant inflationary impact despite the exchange rate unification, the end of the crawling peg, and the elimination of capital controls for individuals.

The agency described the scenario as a "crossing of the Rubicon" and predicted that monthly inflation will fall to 2% in the coming months, and may even breach that threshold by the third quarter of the year.

For Goldman Sachs, the current process is even more robust than the one implemented in the 1990s during Convertibility. The firm maintained that the macroeconomic order achieved without resorting to a fixed exchange rate or a traditional stabilization plan is a merit of the current program, which is more compatible with currency competition.

In this regard, the role of the fiscal surplus and zero emissions as pillars of a new relative price framework was also highlighted.

Local brands such as LCG, Econviews, Equilibra, Eco Go, and FMyA recorded weekly price declines, especially in food and beverages. LCG recorded a 1.6% drop in the second week of May, the steepest in five years, with significant declines in dairy products, meat, and vegetables.

Econviews, for its part, reported a 0.2% decline in its GBA basket, while Equilibra attributed part of the decline to Hot Sale promotions. FMyA also recorded a 0.2% deflation in its weekly index.

The average retail inflation projection for May ranges from 2.2% (Eco Go) to 1.5% (according to bond implicits), with some more optimistic scenarios suggesting figures of around 1% by 2026.

During May, businesses and companies across a variety of industries began adjusting prices without loud announcements, but with tangible effects. In sectors such as construction, electronics, and clothing, declines were noted that were not due to seasonal logic but rather to a need: to sell. Some suppliers, with lower tax burdens and shorter import times, found room to lower prices without losing profitability.

It wasn't a coordinated strategy, but rather a series of scattered decisions that, when combined, began to change the landscape. On the internal agendas of many companies, the priority is no longer highlighting, but rather maintaining flow.

A significant signal came from Aluar. The country's largest aluminum producer chose to reduce prices to move stock. This was not an isolated case: according to market surveys, several companies adjusted prices without waiting for directives. The stable exchange rate and improved logistics conditions acted as enablers for this move.

The financial market, for its part, began to read something that previously seemed improbable. Expected inflation, measured by the difference between CER-adjusted bonds and fixed-rate bonds, marked a change in trend. The projected curves show a progressive decline that, if sustained, could place monthly inflation close to 1% in 2026.

This isn't just a projection: behind it lies a macroeconomic framework that has ceased to be a promise and has begun to consolidate. Fiscal balance, the absence of issuance, and exchange rate stability are marking a new regime. And the remarkable thing is that a crash plan wasn't necessary to achieve it. For now, it's enough to stay on course.