Guanipa Arrested: Maximum Tension in Pre-Electoral Venezuela

The already tense Venezuelan political climate escalated further with the arrest, last Friday, May 23, 2025, of Juan Pablo Guanipa, a prominent opposition figure and one of leader María Corina Machado's closest collaborators. The arrest, carried out just two days before legislative and regional elections, was described by Nicolás Maduro's government as part of an operation against "terrorism," while the opposition denounced it as an act of "state terrorism" and a new crackdown on dissidents.

Guanipa's arrest was announced by the Minister of the Interior, Justice, and Peace, Diosdado Cabello, who described him as "one of the leaders of this sinister terrorist group" and "the head of this terrorist network." According to Cabello, the arrest was part of the so-called "Operation Tún Tún," a security operation that the Venezuelan government has invoked on previous occasions to justify actions against opposition politicians and activists accused of planning destabilizing acts. In this same operation, a total of 70 people were reportedly arrested, including Argentine, Ecuadorian, and Serbian citizens.

Juan Pablo Guanipa, a lawyer and former National Assembly member, had been in hiding since the controversial July 2024 presidential elections, in which the majority opposition denounced electoral fraud and presented records that, they claimed, validated the victory of their candidate, Edmundo González.

Guanipa's arrest came at a particularly sensitive time: just 48 hours before the legislative and regional elections on Sunday, May 25, 2025. This electoral context was already preceded by a climate of high polarization and allegations of political persecution. Nicolás Maduro's government has faced repeated accusations of arbitrary detentions against political leaders, social activists, and critical citizens, a practice that, according to human rights organizations, intensified after Maduro declared himself the winner of the presidential elections for a third term (2025-2031).

The protests that followed the proclamation resulted in a tragic toll of approximately 28 deaths, 200 injuries, and some 2,400 arrests, of which approximately 2,000 people have already been released, according to figures from the Venezuelan Attorney General's Office.

Guanipa's arrest sparked a wave of outrage and condemnation from key figures in the Venezuelan opposition. María Corina Machado, with whom Guanipa maintained close collaboration and frequently appeared at campaign rallies, denounced on social media a "ferocious raid across the country" and described the government's actions as "pure and unadulterated STATE TERRORISM." Machado described Guanipa as a "brave and upright man" and referred to him as "my comrade and my brother."

Other opposition leaders, such as former presidential candidate and former governor Henrique Capriles, also joined the protests, demanding the release of Guanipa and other detained activists. "Our total and absolute solidarity with Juan Pablo Guanipa and other political leaders arbitrarily detained in recent hours. THEY ARE NOT TERRORISTS NOR HAVE THEY COMMITTED CRIMES!" Capriles expressed.

From Juan Pablo Guanipa’s own X account (formerly Twitter), a message was published after his arrest: “Brothers, if you are reading this it is because I have been kidnapped by the forces of the Nicolás Maduro regime… For months, I, like many Venezuelans, have been in protective custody to maintain my safety. Regrettably, my time in protective custody has come to an end… I am not sure what will happen to me in the coming hours, days and weeks.”

* "In the Venezuelan opposition, we have made the mistake of shooting at each other," a reflection by politician Juan Requesens, who spent five years in prison, quoted by the BBC, highlights the complexity and internal divisions that have also affected the anti-Chavez movement, although the condemnation of Guanipa's arrest was largely unanimous.

These events are taking place within the context of a multidimensional crisis that has plagued Venezuela for years. Figures from international organizations indicate that nearly 7.9 million Venezuelans have left the country as refugees or migrants, fleeing the economic collapse, food insecurity, and the collapse of basic services. Added to this are constant reports of digital censorship, the blocking of independent media outlets, and the persecution of nongovernmental organizations, such as the recent case of Transparencia Venezuela, which announced it will operate from exile.

The arrest of a political figure of the stature of Juan Pablo Guanipa, a key player within the inner circle of María Corina Machado—currently the most visible and mobilizing opposition leader—carried out on the eve of an election, cannot be interpreted as an isolated incident. On the contrary, it is emerging as an unequivocal sign of the tightening of the repressive strategy by Nicolás Maduro's government. This action appears to respond to a precise political calculation: to dismantle any semblance of a cohesive opposition leadership, instill a climate of widespread fear among dissidents, and, ultimately, ensure absolute political control in the face of a persistent crisis of legitimacy and deep popular discontent.

This escalation of repression, while potentially bringing the opposition into submission in the short term, risks having counterproductive effects for the Venezuelan government internationally and, potentially, domestically. It could further unify the most staunch opposition sectors in their rejection of the ruling party and attract greater condemnation from the international community, complicating any future attempts to normalize diplomatic relations or ease the economic sanctions imposed on the country. However, in the immediate term, the neutralization of leaders like Guanipa severely weakens the opposition's capacity for mobilization and organization within Venezuela, perpetuating the cycle of political and humanitarian crisis by progressively closing the path to a peaceful, negotiated democratic transition, as various international actors have proposed.