Ruffian is right

Since Pablo Iglesias left politics in 2021, we've known that Podemos is worth 4.5% in Spain. All the CIS members come with this certainty, no matter what happens, and this, although it may seem small to their leaders, is a lot, given the future that lies ahead, rather than the past. 4.5% is just over a million votes, and that's what we build on. If we compare it with the result that Sumar would obtain today, around 6%, and we separate from this Sumar estimate the votes of Compromís, CHA or Més per Mallorca, all of them plurinational parties, we will get an idea of how tied the two factions that once formed Unidas Podemos are and, if, on the contrary, we add them together again in a single candidacy, we will see how they continue to defend the result of 23-J, which was a condition for the re-edition of the coalition government, although without a clearly left-wing majority and supported by a plurinational, transversal and peripheral majority.

These are the numbers that paint a picture of a demand for three million votes. Remember that in Spain, demand always rules, never electoral supply, even though the narrative industry tries to tell us otherwise. In fact, in 2015, all those who are now eligible or have been invited to take part in the Rufián Reflection, misnamed Operation 1 , separately obtained more than seven million votes and 82 seats. Rufián technically advocates a left-wing plurinational list so that after the next general elections, "they won't kill us separately (dixit)." It's also worth remembering that the PSOE, on that occasion, obtained 5.5 million votes and 90 seats. From then until June 23, the plurinational list has been the center of the spectrum, although he has had "almost no one" who wrote to him. In fact, on June 23, the Rufián Reflection obtained four million votes and 45 seats. Today, there are likely a few more because this space is a safe haven for many supporters who in 2015 were in the plurinational party, and in 2019, after the 2018 censure and the Sánchez factor, moved to the PSOE thanks to the management of a new team with a political strategy that saw it coming.

Coalition government or challenge, that's the crux of the matter. We form a coalition or we challenge.

The "plurinational factor" has been in power for the past ten years, having emerged as the axis of rupture and challenge to the two-party system, just as the "authoritarian factor" is taking over today. Vox is close to five million votes and has almost 70 seats. These factors, as the backbone of majorities and governments, are vectors of discontent and challenge, both then and now, bringing about profound changes in Spanish politics, even if institutional reforms take time to arrive.

The coalition's decline may have begun in 2021. Since then, the focus has been on coalition government versus impeachment. The parties Rufián appealed to all have achieved the first progressive coalition government since the Second Republic, which today seems useless 94 years later, which is clearly a serious political mistake. For this reason alone, Rufián's Reflection should not be dismissed as nonsense, as some sources disdainfully claim. What's the point of competing between parties if the demand is not met?

Politics, like many other aspects of life, is not guided by rational criteria but rather by subjective, passionate, and personal ones. And mostly by people who don't see what's happening. Perhaps no one has yet noticed that current Spanish politics has the same representatives as in 2014. Back then, there was Pedro Sánchez, albeit a different version with a different team; Ione Belarra, also a member of parliament since 2015; Santiago Abascal, president of Vox since then; and Alberto Núñez Feijóo, president of the Xunta (Xunta). Yes, there are even those who have been in office much longer. It would make sense to think that, in addition to their troubles, there is also a weariness with their representatives. If this exhaustion is true, why wouldn't it be true among democrats? It would be wise to be humble and listen more closely to Rufián's proposal, because the ERC member is right in his reflection, although in politics, being right is not the same as being successful.

The word unity explains nothing on either the left or the right. It's also an abstract concept. Unity, for what? Pay attention to the answer. Coalition government or challenge. In fact, that's the crux of the matter. Do we form a coalition or challenge?

Next week Vox's Nemesis

We already know that the axis of the challenge—outside versus inside—along with immigration will be decisive in the next electoral cycle, and that is the strength of the current Podemos. When Rufián launched his conglomerate, it was understood that plurinationality and challenge go hand in hand. Podemos won the 2015 general elections in the Basque Country and Catalonia under that guise. You can be very left-wing and nationalist or plurinational. Vox, in fact, is far-right and purely uninational. And precisely what is needed is a nemesis of Vox.

The Hawkeye The Loreg

A plurinational conglomerate requires a precise understanding of the effects of the LOREG and the establishment of a Broad Front in a confederal manner, where no one bothers anyone else. That was a lesson from the 28-M elections, where everyone failed. The PSOE, Sumar, and Podemos, with the loss of the Valencian Community, for example, are so important because they give you a foot and a half to reach the Moncloa Palace. In fact, by just 20,000 votes in four plurinational constituencies—the half foot he was missing—Feijóo is not president today, not because he didn't want to.