The Basque lock of the legislature

At a time when the pillars of the legislature appear to be cracking on both the left and the right, the Basque partners in the coalition government are clinging to the continued mandate. The PNV (Basque Nationalist Party) is once again raising the need to provide the Executive with a budget if it is to commit to governability and is questioning the role of its Catalan ally, Junts. Meanwhile, EH Bildu is appealing to Podemos to avoid an end to the mandate that would ultimately lead to a PP government with the support of Vox.

The two parties competing in the Basque Country in a context of extreme equality—they tied for seats in last year's elections—agree on taking a proactive role to ensure the mandate doesn't derail abruptly. The prospect of a tough PP government, heavily influenced by a rising Vox party, shattering the playing field on which both parties have operated in recent years is pressing, and the consequences this could have on the social level and from a national perspective are worrying.

"The offensive against the national rights of the nation-states will be the spearhead of the far-right's reactionary agenda," said Pello Otxandiano, spokesperson for EH Bildu in the Basque Parliament, in an interview on Radio Euskadi a few days ago.

The pro-independence movement believes the right is preparing a scenario of challenge along Spanish nationalist lines, as outlined in the PP's latest presentation. Its ideological basis is the positions being cooked up at the FAES Foundation, which José María Aznar repeatedly conveys in the media, or the minimal approach for a PP-Vox executive outlined by Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, professor of economics at the University of Pennsylvania.

This is a scenario that might have been successful when the "the worse, the better" ideology had its adherents in a segment of the Basque nationalist left, the political culture that carries the most weight in the coalition, but which they are now avoiding like a ringworm. The agenda agreed upon by EH Bildu for the current term, which also includes agreements on prison policy, would be slowed down, and the coalition would have to rethink its political strategy of recent years, a pragmatic, practical, and leading approach both in the Basque Country and Navarre, as well as in Madrid, which has brought it notable success at the polls.

"The offensive against national rights will be the spearhead of the PP and Vox," warns Bildu.

This electoral performance has been key to being able to undertake its pragmatic shift without jeopardizing an internal cohesion that is much more compromised than what is perceived in Madrid. Hence, the Basque nationalist coalition has taken such an active role in defending the continuity of the coalition government and hence its appeals, both publicly and privately, to Podemos, whom they accuse of a lack of responsibility in the face of the looming scenario.

EH Bildu MP Mikel Otero's criticism of Podemos in the last session of Congress regarding the party's position on the anti-blackout decree law could not have been more eloquent.

For now, in their joint appearance a few days ago in Vitoria, Bildu and Podemos agreed on the need to open "a new political cycle and move beyond the regime of '78," although it remains to be seen what this will mean beyond hypothetical electoral turnouts.

The PNV's interpretation of the scenario that could arise if the legislature derails is equally negative. The PNV is convinced that the PP has already accepted that it will need Vox's votes to govern, and they don't foresee a scenario of understanding with the PP, but rather a shift in their positions, especially at the regional level.

That scenario would swiftly end the Basque nationalist influence in Madrid and scupper a legislative agenda with which the Basque Nationalist Party (Jeltzale) hoped to advance self-government and strengthen its political capital. Furthermore, this alternative would jeopardize the stability on which their coalition with the Socialist Socialist Party (PSE) is based, reinforced by the Socialists' need for Basque nationalist votes in Madrid.

The PNV has criticized Junts for acting as if "everything that doesn't touch their own agenda" doesn't exist.

The Basque nationalists need time to relaunch their political project and are seeking to regain the trust of their voters, spearheaded by the management of Lehendakari Imanol Pradales's government. Although they are aware that they are condemned to living from day to day, the prospect of a hasty end to the coalition government is causing vertigo in Sabin Etxea's eyes. Hence Aitor Esteban's criticism of Junts, their Catalan ally, for acting as if "everything that doesn't touch their own agenda" doesn't exist.