Yaqui and Mayo Valleys Region: They sow wheat and reap debt and uncertainty

HERMOSILLO, Sonora ( Proceso ).– Millions in losses due to drought and a federal government response focused on a radical economic transformation are two issues that summarize the tensions currently experienced by wheat producers in southern Sonora.

More than a year into this situation, trials with new crops offer hope, but debts carried over from previous seasons continue to exert financial pressure.

In short, this media outlet reported that it is projected to be "impossible" to plant the grain for the 2025-2026 cycle, which represents a milestone in the last century of the productive history of the Yaqui and Mayo valleys, so the transition to crops that require less water is already considered irreversible.

Cuts

Reports from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (Seder) expose the magnitude of the cuts caused by the drought and federal policy.

They establish that the average amount of land dedicated to wheat in Sonora from 1980 to 2024 is close to 270,000 hectares per year, which represents practically half of the grain planted in the entire country.

However, as of May 2025, producers reported, in line with Sader's guidelines to abandon this crop, minimal planting, which took place on only 59,439.94 hectares.

But the economic consequences of the drought were already evident at the end of last year. Despite mitigating the effects and managing to cut the cultivated land by 6.7%, the tonnage produced fell by 20.6% and profits by 38.7%. This is reflected in the fact that the 2023 balance sheet yielded dividends of more than 17 billion pesos, while for 2024 the figure fell below 10.5 billion.

Thus, if the product could be placed on the market and the 2024 price per ton maintained, wheat revenues in Sonora this year would be around four billion pesos; but this was not achieved.

Juan Francisco Souque Campoy, a third-generation farmer from Cajeme, the municipality with the longest wheat-growing tradition in the country, explains:

“Planting wheat this year was a bad deal. Because there was limited acreage, we thought some of the mills (which buy the grain to produce flour and semolina) would improve. Three years ago, we were selling for approximately 7,200 pesos per ton, and we thought that this year supply and demand would lead us to 6,500, but we didn't achieve that. We sold for 5,700 pesos per ton. Imagine, you produce six tons, but the production costs you about 22 or 23 thousand pesos, and if you add the rent, it's 30,000 pesos plus the gas bill, and there's no profit left.”

Indebted and without a market

The ravages of production cuts also manifested themselves in excessive financial burdens for producers.

"Right now, this is a very critical stage. We're coming out of the 2023-2024 agricultural cycle with problems of low production and low market prices. Imagine the flow that a 300-hectare company with commitments for tractors, machinery...

"The farmer estimates that he'll meet those commitments year after year, but (today) he can't. He's dragging losses and uncertainty for next year," he said.

According to the producer, one of the factors that led to the lack of transparency in the law of supply and demand, and therefore a premium on wheat grown in the region that could mitigate the problem, was the importation of wheat and corn.

"Ships arrived from South Africa, where mills like MASECA's were supplied. There's talk of food sovereignty, but it's not being implemented," he concluded.

First steps towards reconversion

Producers in southern Sonora are generally positive about the results they've achieved through development with new crops, especially those well-positioned in the domestic oil market, such as canola and sunflower. A way out of the crisis is in sight, although there's still a long way to go.

According to information from producers, several hectares of canola were planted earlier this year to evaluate its performance in Sonoran soil. The yield was 2.8 tons per hectare, which is among the optimal values for this crop, despite the fact that planting was not carried out at the optimal time.

Furthermore, canola in southern Sonora has demonstrated a key property for crop conversion: its resistance to questionable water quality. This condition was caused by the drought, which drained dams and caused well water to reach the salty sediments at the bottom.

We believe that better water quality will improve performance. The canola suffered from water stress, but it performed well despite that.

In general, there are three challenges to be solved to make canola the new favorite crop of Mexico's "breadbasket":

• Improve sowing and cultivation dates.
• Improve water quality and timeliness.
• Adapt threshing to the physical qualities of canola.

While some of these factors can be addressed by producers in collaboration with the federal government, the issue of water is tied to weather conditions, so in addition to working, it requires "waiting for rain, for there to be water in the reservoirs."

With all this, this year seeds of the gañola variety that gave the best results were obtained, allowing the planting of nearly 5,000 hectares. This will be the total area covered by this crop during the 2025-2026 agricultural cycle, starting next November 20th.

A year later, the land devoted to canola in southern Sonora is expected to multiply until it becomes the main crop. Among the factors driving this trend are negotiations with companies such as Aceites del Mayo and producers of the Oleico brand of oil to acquire tonnage.