"The consequences will be horrible." A severe tax will hit Poles
- Poland is one of the countries with a heat demand exceeding the EU average. As a result, Poles will be among the countries whose citizens will be most affected by the launch of the EU ETS2 directive.
- To cover the additional costs related to ETS2, the average Polish family in 2027 will have to spend the equivalent of 45% (82% in 2030) of the monthly minimum wage in the case of gas heating, and 73% (134% in 2030) in the case of coal heating.
- The highest costs will be borne by the residents of the oldest, uninsulated single-family buildings.
The new system will include fees for emissions from fuel combustion by households and businesses not yet covered by the ETS1 system, including small heating plants, bakeries, restaurants, and shops. Additional costs will be hidden in the price of fossil fuels, including coal, gas, heating oil, and motor fuels. This is the so-called heating tax. The cost of purchasing fuels will increase not only by the amount of the emission fee, but also by the amount of VAT charged on this fee.
Households will incur much higher costs than currently anticipatedWe will feel the sharp increase in prices twice: after the launch of ETS2 in 2027 and in 2030 after the merger of ETS1 and ETS2 - we read in the report "Analysis of the impact of ETS2 on the costs of living of Poles" by Wanda Buk and Marcin Izdebski.
The authors write that in the initial period, if the price of CO2 emission allowances increases above EUR 45 per tonne, the number of emission allowances available on the market will increase, which may result in a decrease in their prices. The European Commission predicts an increase in prices above the originally assumed ceiling of EUR 45 per tonne to EUR 50 already in 2028. After the systems are combined, the prices of emission allowances from ETS2 will be equal to ETS1 prices (the average price in 2023 is EUR 83.85), and households and small businesses will compete for the purchase of a limited number of emission allowances with power plants, steelworks or cement plants.
If the decrease in emissions in industry is lower than currently assumed, households will incur a much higher cost than currently predicted. The realization of this scenario will lead to a situation in which some citizens may be forced to give up their own means of transport and lower the thermal standards of their homes.
- we read in the report.
In January 2025, Prime Minister Donald Tusk addressed this issue and warned against the introduction of the ETS2 system.
Its consequences will be eerily predictable, high energy prices may overthrow many democratic governments
- said Prime Minister Donald Tusk.
According to the analyses by the authors of the publication, which were based on the forecasts of allowance prices prepared by the European Commission, the introduction of ETS2 will affect the prices below in the following way:
The additional annual cost of heating water for a household with average hot water consumption will increase as follows:
Natural gas:
- 2027 - 79 PLN,
- 2028 - 132 PLN,
- 2029 - 145 PLN,
- 2030 - 145 PLN,
- 2035 - 370 PLN,
- 2040 - 766 PLN,
- 2045 - 1135 PLN,
- 2050 - 1294 PLN,
- 2055 - 1373.
Coal:
- 2027 - 153 PLN,
- 2028 - 254 PLN,
- 2029 - 280 PLN,
- 2030 - 280 PLN,
- 2035 - 712 PLN,
- 2040 - 1475 PLN,
- 2045 - 2187 PLN,
- 2050 - 2492 PLN,
- 2055 - 2645 PLN.
The additional annual cost of cooking meals will increase as follows:
Natural gas:
- 2027 - 62 PLN,
- 2028 - 103 PLN,
- 2029 - 113 PLN,
- 2030 - 113 PLN,
- 2035 - 288 PLN,
- 2040 - 596 PLN,
- 2045 - 884 PLN,
- 2050: - 1007 PLN,
- 2055 - 1069 PLN.
LPG:
- 2027 - 70 PLN,
- 2028 - 117 PLN,
- 2029 - 129 PLN,
- 2030 - 129 PLN,
- 2035 - 328 PLN,
- 2040 - 680 PLN,
- 2045 - 1008 PLN,
- 2050 - 1149 PLN,
- 2055 - 1219 PLN.
The analysis by Wanda Buk and Marcin Izdebski shows that for an average Polish family (statistically average based on the Central Statistical Office data), the cumulative additional cost of ETS2 in the case of gas heating will amount to PLN 6,338 in 2027-2030, and PLN 24,018 in 2027-2035.
In the case of using coal, it will be PLN 10,311 and PLN 39,074, respectively. In order to cover the additional costs related to ETS2, the average Polish family in 2027 in the case of gas heating will have to spend the equivalent of 45% (in 2030 - 82%) of the monthly minimum wage, and in the case of coal heating 73% (in 2030 - 134%).
A family with high energy consumption in the years 2027-2030 in the case of gas heating will incur cumulative costs of PLN 12,100, and in the years 2027-2035: PLN 45,851. If it uses coal, it will be PLN 20,403 and PLN 77,318, respectively.
To cover the additional costs related to ETS2, the average Polish family in 2027 in the case of gas heating will have to spend the equivalent of 86% (in 2030 - 157%) of the monthly minimum wage, and in the case of coal heating 144% (in 2030 - 264%).
Clean Industrial Deal Strategy allows for revision of ETSMinister of Climate and Environment Paulina Hennig-Kloska, recently asked whether it would be possible to delay the implementation of the ETS2 system, i.e. the new, expanded system for trading in CO2 emission permits, or whether its provisions would come into force as announced from 2027, said that the package for clean industry contains a certain announcement of a revision of ETS2.
She added that, following discussions with member states, the EC is usually ready to revise its plans and timetables.
The energy price reduction package is extremely important from the point of view of EU citizens who need to feel that they are the beneficiaries of the energy transformation in Europe.
- emphasized Paulina Hennig-Kloska.
