Poland's Third Way alliance confirms split but remains within Tusk's ruling coalition

The two parties that make up the Third Way, which is part of Poland's ruling coalition, have confirmed that they are splitting and will stand separately at the next elections.

The decision was confirmed in statements issued last night and this morning by the leaders of the two parties that make up the alliance: Szymon Hołownia of the centrist Poland 2050 (Polska 2050) and Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz of the center-right Polish People's Party (PSL).

The Third Way was formed two years ago , when PSL and Poland 2050 were in opposition. They retained their identities separate as parties but stood candidates on joint electoral lists at the October 2023 parliamentary elections , where they together won 14.4% of the vote.

That placed them third, behind the national-conservative Law and Justice (PiS, 35.4%) and centrist Civic Coalition (KO, 30.7%) and ahead of The Left (Lewica, 8.6%).

After those elections, KO, the Third Way and The Left formed a new coalition government , led by KO leader Donald Tusk, that removed PiS from power after eight years in office. It has ruled the country ever since.

Kosiniak-Kamysz serves as deputy prime minister and defense minister in the government, while Hołownia is the speaker of Sejm, the more powerful lower house of parliament.

PSL and Poland 2050 formed separate caucuses in parliament, with each currently having 32 MPs in the 460-seat Sejm.

But they continued to stand jointly as the Third Way in subsequent elections. At the April 2024 local elections , the Third Way won 14.3% of the vote. However, at the European elections that took place two months later, its share fell to just 6.9%.

In this year's presidential election, PSL agreed to support the candidacy of Hołownia, but he won a disappointing 5% of the vote in the first round , finishing fifth. That was significantly worse than his presidential run as an independent in 2020, when he finished third with 13.9% .

Since the most recent presidential elections, rumors have circulated that PSL and Poland 2050 might decide to separate.

The two parties have not always been natural allies, with PSL taking more conservative positions on issues such as abortion and same-sex partnerships and Poland 2050 placing stronger emphasis on climate policies than its partner.

On Tuesday evening, PSL's leadership met to discuss the best path forward. Afterwards, before any official announcement had been made, Hołownia issued a statement saying that his party “accepts the decision of our coalition partner PSL to effectively end the Third Way project.”

He said that Poland 2050 was “determined to work constructively with our partners” going forward, but was also felt “sincere political joy at the prospect of running independently in the next elections.”

Subsequently, leading PSL figures, including party spokesman Miłosz Motyka, noted that no resolution had been formally adopted on ending the Third Way alliance. That prompted questions over whether what Hołownia had written was accurate.

However, on Wednesday, Kosiniak-Kamysz confirmed the split, telling broadcaster Radio Zet that the Third Way “is behind us, it has reached the end”.

The announcement was “supposed to be a bit different”, he added. “We had a discussion yesterday; Poland 2050 will have a discussion on June 28. Then we were supposed to come out together and say that this stage is closed. [But] when there are 150 people in the room, it is difficult to keep everything absolutely sterile.”

After this month's presidential election run-off was won by PiS-backed candidate Karol Nawrocki – who defeated KO deputy leader Rafał Trzaskowski – there were questions over whether and how the government would be able to rule with a hostile president and his power of veto.

PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński called for Tusk's administration to step down and be replaced by an “apolitical technical government”. Figures from his party appealed to PSL, the most conservative element of the ruling coalition, to join them in bringing down the government.

However, at a vote of confidence in the government called by Tusk last week, he emerged triumphant, with all his coalition partners – PSL, Poland 2050 and The Left – joining KO in voting in favor.

The next elections scheduled in Poland are parliamentary ones that are due to take place in autumn 2027. If PSL and Poland 2050 stand as individual parties, they would have to win at least 5% of vote to enter parliament. If they stand as part of a coalition, the threshold is 8%.

Main image credit: Tomasz Kaczor/Wikimedia Commons (under CC BY-SA 4.0 )