Tough Ceasefire Talks in Istanbul: Putin Offers Ukraine Two Scenarios

Russian government media published the text of the proposals submitted to the Ukrainian delegation in Istanbul on Monday . The first chapter describes the "basic parameters of the final settlement."

This concerns a dozen or so demands previously put forward by the Kremlin, including Ukraine's non-accession to NATO, international recognition of Russian conquests, the status of the Moscow Church and the Russian language on the Dnieper, Ukraine's waiver of reparations, and a reduction in the size of the Ukrainian army.

Ceasefire in Ukraine. What does Vladimir Putin demand?

Moscow lists the ceasefire conditions in the second chapter of its proposals. It offers the authorities in Kiev two scenarios. The first contains only one demand – the withdrawal of the Ukrainian army from the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions partially occupied by Russia. The Ukrainian authorities will not agree to this, because it would mean handing over four regions of Ukraine to Putin in their entirety.

The Kremlin is therefore offering the Ukrainians a second scenario. It assumes, among other things, the introduction of a ban on the rotation of Ukrainian units, the halting of mobilization and the beginning of demobilization on the Dnieper, and the cessation of deliveries of Western military aid (including intelligence and satellite data). Moscow also proposes the establishment of a Russian-Ukrainian center that would monitor compliance with the ceasefire.

The second scenario also includes the lifting of martial law and holding elections in Ukraine. Moscow also expects Ukraine to agree to discuss all of its “ultimate” demands with Russia (including non-expansion of NATO and recognition of the occupation of part of the country), but only after a ceasefire.

Russia is setting conditions for Ukraine. What do experts in Kiev think about this?

Does the change in the order of Russian demands matter? – For now, this is a demonstration of readiness to compromise. Putin promised Trump that the Russian side would offer Ukraine conditions that would be “acceptable”. They are not, because they require unilateral concessions from Ukraine. In fact, it is about our capitulation and disarmament – ​​Volodymyr Fesenko, a well-known Kiev political scientist, tells “Rzeczpospolita”.

- These demands are subject to negotiations, but we must start by introducing a ceasefire. Then we can discuss a mutual suspension of mobilization and recruitment of new soldiers for the duration of the ceasefire. We can also talk about demobilization, but on the basis that after three months of the ceasefire, each side demobilizes, for example, 10-15 percent of its soldiers. These must be mutual steps and each point must be discussed separately - he adds.

He reminds us that there are red lines that Ukrainians will not allow Russians to cross. "It's about elections and our internal affairs. No one will discuss this with Putin," he points out. He convinces us that Ukraine will return to talks with Russia in Istanbul at the end of June.

– Russia is creating a parallel reality. It is behaving as if there was no mass drone attack . Instead of a ceasefire, they are still presenting a list of demands – Prof. Yevhen Mahda, a Ukrainian political scientist and academic, tells “Rzeczpospolita”. He believes that Ukraine should continue the talks in Istanbul, but he does not believe in the success of these negotiations. – You can seek a compromise with Russia if it finds itself in a state of knockdown – he adds.

Does Putin want to stop the war with Ukraine?

Meanwhile, Dmitry Medvedev, former president and current deputy to Putin on the Security Council, has openly suggested on his Telegram profile that Russia is not seeking a ceasefire. “The negotiations in Istanbul are needed not for a compromise peace on terms invented by someone, but for our quicker victory,” he wrote.

Alexey Mukhin, a Moscow political scientist associated with the Russian authorities, claims that the Kremlin's host thinks differently. "It's hard to comment on the posts of Dmitry Medvedev's social media department employees. There are a lot of things being written online. From what I know, the presidential administration is taking the talks in Istanbul very seriously and is allowing for different scenarios of how the situation could develop," Mukhin tells Rzeczpospolita.