Will PiS try to retake Podlasie? This could be the first referendum on the recall of the regional assembly

• It is very likely that there will be an attempt to organize a referendum on the dismissal of the Podlaskie Voivodeship Assembly.
• The Civic Coalition and the Third Way have been in power in the Podlaskie regional council since 2024.
• The dismissal of the regional assembly before the end of its term of office is possible only through a provincial referendum.

The president of the National Research Group, Łukasz Pawłowski, wrote on one of the social media portals: "After Nawrocki's success, PiS should now follow up and organize the first provincial referendum and regain the Podlaskie province, which was simply stolen from PiS voters. The same rules as with the city - 10 percent of signatures and 3/5 turnout for validity"

Pawłowski corrected the mistake, 5 percent of signatures are needed.

His post was met with an immediate response. Jacek Sasin, PiS MP and head of the party's Podlasie structures, announced:

"The wind of change will not bypass the Podlaskie province - we will do everything to ensure that the disastrous rule of the December 13 Coalition stops hindering the development of our region. The first steps are coming soon. I assure you that we will find an effective way to give the provincial government back to the residents of Podlaskie."

And this is not the end of media declarations by representatives of Law and Justice. Artur Kosicki, the Podlasie marshal of the previous term, today the chairman of the opposition PiS club of the Podlasie regional assembly, admitted:

"PiS won the elections to the regional assembly, but PO took power because of two traitors. This has nothing to do with the will of the voters - a referendum is a good way to fix this situation. That is why I fully agree with Łukasz Pawłowski, the president of OGB."

The topic was picked up by media favoring the right wing: "More and more voices are being raised that, following Karol Nawrocki's victory in the presidential elections, Law and Justice should take steps to regain the Podlasie provincial assembly, where power is currently held by representatives of the December 13 coalition against the will of the voters," we read in wpolityce.pl.

Sebastian Łukaszewicz, a PiS MP and vice-marshal of the Podlaskie regional assembly in the previous term, also spoke on the matter. He argued that if local government elections were held today, the right-wing camp would win 22 out of 30 seats in the Podlaskie regional assembly.

Our analyses show that to announce a referendum we need significantly fewer signatures than were collected for President Karol Nawrocki in our region, and for the referendum to be valid - almost 100,000 fewer people than voted for Karol Nawrocki in Podlaskie in the second round of the presidential elections.

- he added.

Łukaszewicz is a great supporter of the referendum: "I intend to convince the PiS leadership to start collecting signatures for a provincial referendum. The balance of power in the regional assembly shows that nothing is certain - and political arithmetic can be dynamic. Because it is the residents of Podlaskie who should decide who governs their province, not the cabinets in Warsaw! "

Tadeusz Truskolaski, the mayor of Białystok, who is not a PO member but does not hide his support for this side of the political scene, says in an interview with Portal Samorządowy:

These are the effects of the presidential elections. PiS, riding the wave, will try such actions. It is said that there will be referenda in cities as well, besides, we have already had one in Zabrze, there are also attempts, unsuccessful so far, to organize a referendum in Wrocław. Well, the law allows it, such are the principles of democracy and we have to accept it.

The President of Białystok recalls that in the Podlaskie province there has already been one province-wide referendum - on the issue of the airport, but it failed due to too low turnout.

- These requirements are quite high, I do not know whether in a possible referendum on the regional council this turnout would be sufficient, we must also remember that these are high financial costs, in this case about PLN 5 million - says the mayor of Białystok and adds:

- In my opinion, this provincial board is working effectively and I hope that even if a referendum takes place, the residents will evaluate the substantive side and not focus on the political plebiscite that PiS is after - he adds.

According to media reports, PiS politicians may announce preparations for the referendum as early as June 10, as a conference of PiS-United Right parliamentarians is scheduled for that day.

On the PiS side, the referendum idea raises some doubts, too. PiS MP Dariusz Piontkowski from Białystok is much more cautious in assessing the chances of its success than his party colleagues.

The referendum requires significant social involvement, and this is not the presidential election that the national media has been talking about for many months, here the involvement may be much smaller, and the media, where the current ruling majority has the advantage, will not be interested in promoting this event

- says.

MP Piontkowski recommends a calm and emotionless assessment of the situation.

- I understand that there is post-election fever, but certain things need to be recalculated, we must also remember that elections to regional assemblies are not the kind of elections that mobilize residents, many of them are not interested in what the regional assemblies are doing, they do not fully distinguish between the competences of the marshal and the voivode, which is why I believe that we need to approach this without emotion - he states.

In the 2024 local elections, Law and Justice won 15 seats in the Podlaskie Voivodeship Assembly, the Civic Coalition had 8, Trzecia Droga 6, and the Confederation and Non-Party Local Governments committee - 1.

Initially, there was no indication that PiS could lose power in the region. Quite unexpectedly, KO and Trzecia Droga gained a majority in the regional assembly, thanks to the support of two PiS councillors - Wiesława Burnos and Marek Malinowski. As a result, a new chairman of the regional assembly was elected, and later the regional board. Cezary Cieślukowski from Trzecia Droga became the chairman, and Łukasz Prokorym from KO became the marshal of the province.