Drama in the Kremlin. Disastrous news regarding gas and oil.

• In September, Russia will receive 592 billion rubles from oil and gas, and in the first nine months of the year its revenues will fall by 20.5 percent.
• Revenues from raw materials make up a quarter of the budget and are crucial for financing the war in Ukraine.
• Oil and gas revenue forecasts for 2025 have been lowered to 8.32 trillion rubles, and from next year the budget is to be additionally protected against price fluctuations and sanctions.

In September, Russia will receive 592 billion rubles ($7.11 billion) from oil and gas sales , and in the first nine months, revenues will fall by 20.5 percent, to 6.62 trillion rubles. Month-on-month, however, oil and gas revenues are expected to rise by 17 percent, partly due to lower government subsidies for refineries.

Oil and gas revenues account for up to a quarter of the Russian budget and are a key source of financing for the war in Ukraine, now in its fourth year. The Finance Ministry is expected to submit a draft budget for 2026 to parliament by the end of September, Reuters reports.

He adds that although Russia managed to avoid a recession in 2023-2024, the economy is now slowing down and the budget deficit is growing. "This year, income and corporate taxes were raised, but in May the government still tripled the deficit forecast to 1.7% of GDP. Official growth forecasts have been lowered, and some bankers and officials are warning of stagnation or recession," we read.

Reuters notes that oil and gas revenues totaled 11.13 trillion rubles in 2023. Initially, the ministry forecast that revenues would reach 10.94 trillion rubles (about 5% of GDP) in 2025, but the forecast was reduced to 8.32 trillion rubles. On October 3, the Ministry of Finance is scheduled to release September revenue data.

On Thursday, a change in the budget structure was also announced, which from next year is intended to protect state finances against oil price fluctuations and the effects of Western sanctions.