The zloty is gearing up for ratings Friday. The euro is up slightly.
On Friday evening, the decision on the Polish rating may be made. Moody's agency announced. This is a serious risk for the zloty, which, however, for now remains calm. The euro exchange rate rose only slightly, but it did become more expensive. US dollar.
Tonight is the date of the official Polish review rating at Moody's. After two weeks ago, Poland's rating outlook was lowered by Fitch , there is a serious risk that Moody's may do the same. Moreover, due to the drastic deterioration the state of Polish public finances may not only be a reduction prospects, but even the rating itself.
- A market with a large probability assumes that Moody's, like Fitch before it, will downgrade rating outlook from stable to negative – they wrote in the morning report by PKO BP economists. - However, there is a certain risk that it may even decide to cut the country's credit rating itself. This could translate in the short term, the zloty may weaken by 2-4 groszy, although The reaction to such a decision would take place as early as Monday, they added.
- We do not assume any change, but if the agency decides lower the outlook like Fitch, it may negatively impact sentiment, zloty and increase credit spreads – said Bank Millennium analysts.
The zloty market was relatively calm this morning. The euro exchange rate grew only slightly, reaching the level of PLN 4.2630. On the euro-zloty pair from In April, there is a narrow sideways trend, with a range of PLN 4.23-4.31. In recent weeks Volatility in the Eurozloty has practically stopped.
US dollar rose by 1.1 groszy, reaching the level of 3.6260 PLN. But this is a result of declines in the euro-dollar pair. The EUR/USD exchange rate after establishing on Wednesday new 4-year high is being corrected for the third day in a row. In the longer term the term "pigeon" The Federal Reserve's turnaround is working against the dollar.
The Swiss franc remains strong, which on Friday morning was valued at PLN 4.5615. In the case of the CHF/PLN exchange rate, from April sideways trend in the range of PLN 4.50-4.60. For the last time close to the bottom The limits of this range of franc quotes were found a month ago.
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