Weak data from the US labor market. Will rates go down?

The July report on the American labor market presented below the expectations of most economists. Moreover, the revision decimated the results for June and also for May. The rate also increased unemployment.

Number of jobs in non-farm sectors payrolls) in July 2025 was 73 thousand higher than in the month earlier , the government's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported. It was the result was worse than the market consensus of 110,000. Very The searches in May and June were also severe, with a total loss of over a quarter of a million jobs.

July payrolls turned out to be weaker than those in June, when The US economy gained 147,000 jobs (but only +14,000 after the revision!). May Day turn the result of 139 thousand was revised down to only 19 thousand as compared to 158 thousand (after revisions) recorded in April. However, the data for March showed that as many as 228,000 jobs were added in the world's largest economy. jobs , which at that time was a result much higher than economists' expectations. It is therefore clear that the trend of employment creation in the US is decreasing.

The average for the seven months of 2025 fell to 84,000. This is less than the average of nearly 200,000 in 2024 and significantly less than 240,000. thousand for the year 2023. However, in the post-lockdown year 2022, as a result of breaking with sanitary regime, an average of 381 thousand people arrived (or rather returned). full-time positions per month.

It is worth noting the systematic decline in employment in industry, where the number of full-time jobs shrank for the third month in a row. The decline the number of jobs was also recorded in wholesale trade, the information sector and in professional business services. The number of positions also decreased by 10,000 (not to be confused with the number of employees!) in the public sector. This includes the number federal positions decreased by 12,000. The number of positions also decreased by 10,400. payroll in the education sector run by local authorities.

Unemployment rate according to expected, it rose to 4.2% after it had risen in June unexpectedly decreased from 4.2% to 4.1%. In absolute numbers this translated into an increase in the number of unemployed people (i.e. people actively job seekers) by 221 thousand, while the number of employed people dropped by as much as 260 thousand. and an increase in the economically inactive population by 239 thousand. These are the results of an independent survey (BAEL), with the help of which the BLS estimates the scale of unemployment.

The average hourly rate in July 2025 was 36.44 USD and was 0.33% higher than a month earlier and 3.9% higher than a year ago ago. The market consensus assumed an increase of 0.3% month-on-month and 3.8% year-on-year. This means that US wages continue to grow slightly faster than officially reported CPI inflation. Average working hours increased from 34.2 to 34.3 hours per week.

The market's initial reaction was a significant weakening of the dollar against the euro. The EUR/USD exchange rate rose to 1.1532 at 2:45 PM, from 1.1394 just before the BLS report was released. Such weak labor market data increases the chances of a September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

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