The five presidential candidates were examined at the college. Almirante was targeted by almost all of them, but he did not attack anyone (except the votes)

In the space of 26 hours, five presidential candidates or proto-candidates passed through the Faculty of Law of the University of Lisbon. Of the current top 6 in the race for Belém, only Ventura was missing. Of the five, three (Marques Mendes, Seguro and Mariana Leitão) aimed their guns at the admiral , whom they criticized for his intended use of the presidential “atomic bomb”, for being against party candidates and even for having made himself known in a written opinion piece, where he cannot be contradicted. The admiral, on the other hand, did not attack any opponent, instead targeting issues that could bring him electoral costs , from Compulsory Military Service to the Social State. More than a catch-all candidate, he is committed to being no please-all candidate — one who pleases everyone.

António Vitorino was the only one who did not attack Admiral Gouveia e Melo, preferring to attack populism — where one can glimpse an indirect reference to Ventura. Mariana Leitão and Seguro — who even shared the same panel — also targeted populists and the far right.

Gouveia e Melo won the audience ratings (with the room overcrowded and people standing) and was on par with Seguro in terms of contact with voters during waiting times. Marques Mendes also made a greater effort to interact with young people. Vitorino and Mariana Leitão kept their distance from students and potential voters. Gouveia e Melo even sat at the table with a Mendes supporter (organiser João Perestrello, leader of SEDES youth) and a Seguro enthusiast (Álvaro Beleza, leader of SEDES for adults).

The five entered as they left: two declared candidates and three proto-candidates. Gouveia e Melo, Vitorino and Seguro maintained the taboo, with creative ways. From a “whatever has to happen will happen” to a “I am exercising my citizenship rights”.

This is how the five installments of the first pre-presidential essay were. With a prior warning: the order that follows is regressive (from who spoke most recently to who spoke the longest ago) and is not related to positions in the polls or any other criteria.

Gouveia and Melo

Current status: Potential presidential candidate

How was the contact with voters: Gouveia e Melo arrived 30 minutes before the panel and took the opportunity to interact with several students. The most comical moment was when a group (the one in the photo above) asked him to take a selfie and the admiral made a counterproposal: he would take as many photos as they wanted, but the old-fashioned way: facing the camera. No turning around. “It’s very used to it,” he said, in an indirect message to Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa. More than comfortable (and very) in contact with people, he was very sought after: one of the students offered him a beer, but the admiral declined. As you know, he doesn’t drink. But the room was overcrowded to hear him. So much so that Marcos Perestrello, a fellow panelist, even made a joke: “Gouveia e Melo is at an advantage [compared to other putative candidates]. Everyone realizes that the auditorium fills up like this because of my own notoriety.” There were even people standing. Gouveia e Melo won in the auditoriometer.

What topics did you prefer to talk about? In the draft electoral manifesto that he published in Expresso, Henrique Gouveia e Melo tried to avoid Defense issues, but this time the panel with the theme “ Portugal’s role in the world ” would not leave much room for escape. Even so, Gouveia e Melo preferred to avoid two ghost topics that could be electoral obstacles: Compulsory Military Service (SMO) and the allocation of social expenses to compensate for the increase in Defense spending. Regarding SMO, Gouveia e Melo even said that he “is not a fan” and defended a system of incentives for reservists that would be a kind of emergency aid in case of need for the Armed Forces. In the case of the Social State, which he also actively wanted to talk about, he continued to admit cuts (of at least 0.5%) to reinforce the Defense budget — but said that the ideal would be to not have to cut social support. And how? With economic growth and/or greater efficiency in the various areas of the Social State.

Who attacked: Henrique Gouveia e Melo did not attack anyone directly (he had sent barbs to Mendes, for example, in the article published in Expresso), but he warned that “scaring young people with the word SMO [Mandatory Military Service] is the worst thing there is”. The idea was to target critics (some of whom support Mendes) who have been using what was until now Gouveia e Melo’s idea about SMO to distance young people from the admiral. He also left a timid side barb at Marcelo when he refused to take selfies, suggesting that it is something that is very old-fashioned. Selfies are informal in a way that does not fit with the admiral’s image.

Gouveia e Melo avoids selfies, rejects Mandatory Military Service and asks for “time” to break the taboo

Current status: Potential presidential candidate

How was the contact with voters: It was sparse, especially because there weren’t many “people” when António Vitorino arrived at the auditorium of the Faculty of Law of the University of Lisbon for the panel on “the future of migration policies”. The room was mostly filled with journalists, preparing for the Tuesday afternoon session, and a few members of the debate’s organization. He was the first person on his panel to arrive and stayed there, in the front row, talking to whoever showed up for the panel, without much fuss around him. As he spoke, the room started to fill up, especially as the panel approached its end. The reason was the next speaker, Henrique Gouveia e Melo.

What topics did he prefer to talk about? He did not ignore the elephant in the room at this conference of presidential candidates and did not limit himself to migration — the topic of the panel he was invited to, also as president of the National Council for Migration and Asylum. In his various speeches, he made a point of joking about the “expectations” generated by the conference, attributing them to the “parade of speakers” and other jokes of the sort (read the point below), but he also took advantage of this still undefined stage to position himself on a “toxic” topic — as he says a friend described it, advising him against going at this time: “I don’t know what he was thinking that could harm me”. He avoided “populists”, but he also did not stick to the “come whoever comes” approach, defending a “proactive” and “broad consensus” immigration policy. In the meantime, he also went on to discuss the “social ills” that populists have been using to target immigrants, and listed them: “Low productivity, doubts about how the social elevator works, the aging population, the loss of qualifications and the emigration of young Portuguese people.” This could be a sign. Or not. When he left, he left everything open about a presidential candidacy, but not for long: “I am on the verge of making a decision.”

Who attacked: The theme of the panel was ripe for a stance on the “populists” and António Vitorino did not waste the opportunity. He did so in three steps. Right at the beginning, he spoke of the “fantasy that immigrants come to live at the expense of the Social State”, pointing to the figures: “There were 700 million benefits for Social Security”; then he raised his tone to speak of the “lazy, demagogic and easy way” of solving problems by “blaming immigrants”, which he said was a “populist temptation” (and listed the “social ills” that still need to be resolved in the country); finally, he used figures to deconstruct the European “perception” of a wave of refugees, since 80% of these 40 million refugees seek refuge in developing countries. As for the Government, he both attacked and praised it. He attacked the ban on illegal immigrants accessing the NHS and praised the dialogue he wants to promote with companies for what Vitorino hopes will be a “proactive” approach to immigration: preparing the conditions for receiving immigrants. And here, he poked the elephant in the room again, saying that, in relation to the Government, “there is nothing like maintaining balance in these things, who knows why…”

Antonio Jose Seguro

Current status: Potential presidential candidate

How was the contact with voters: António José Seguro, whom a student referred to as a “possible candidate”, says that he has been listening to the country — maintaining the taboo of a candidacy for Belém — and, from the five minutes he sat at a table on a terrace at the Faculty of Law, it can be said that he has a knack for it, at least for young people. He was more at ease than Marques Mendes, who seemed much more shy in this contact. Seguro went to the bar to order a coffee and asked permission to join a table with about ten students. The opinions on the ideal type of assessment put the students in opposition and António José Seguro moderated the debate, asking about the pros and cons of each solution and explaining his preference as a teacher. He managed to capture everyone’s attention, promoted a fun moment, with several laughs, and even ended with two ideas: “Be happy, preferably in Portugal” — a clear concern with young emigration; and “they are signaling to me that I have to go and talk about democracy, what we did here was practice it”.

What topics did he prefer to talk about: In a panel where the sustainability of democracy was the focus, the former socialist leader took the opportunity to warn about the “unacceptable amounts of populism” that exist in some democracies, justifying that it is like poison — in small quantities it is solvable; in large quantities, it is deadly. It is in action that he finds the solution to combat populism, as he believes that “people no longer believe in words and only regain trust through actions”. Above all, Seguro supported the thesis that people “want different politicians” and that they “do things differently”, to combat the “idea of ​​immediate gratification” that leads to approaches to populist parties.

Who attacked: António José Seguro’s main target was Henrique Gouveia e Melo, and he didn’t even need to spend much time on the airwaves dedicated to the admiral. The answer to a question from the audience was enough for the socialist to question, with a bang, an opinion given by the former Chief of the Navy General Staff in an opinion piece in Expresso — where he said that the “atomic bomb” could be used if there is “a serious gap between the Government’s practical objectives and the will previously approved by the people”. In Seguro’s assessment, the opinion is completely at odds (even with the Constitution): “The Parliament is the one that assesses the fulfilment of the electoral promises during the four years and then, at the end, it is the people. This is very clear in the Constitution. In fact, anyone who thinks otherwise is committing a real violation of the Constitution.” He didn’t mention the admiral’s name, but for those who understand, half a word is enough.

Candidate and “possible candidate” aligned against populism and barbs at the admiral

Mariana Leitao

Current status: Presidential candidate

How was the contact with voters: Unlike Gouveia e Melo, Seguro and Mendes, Mariana Leitão followed the Vitorino model: little contact with students. While the admiral and the two former party leaders interacted with students and sought this, Mariana Leitão even went to the outside bar, but limited herself to talking to her team. She still does not have the chip of a leading candidate activated.

What topics did she prefer to talk about? Mariana Leitão warned about the rise of populism and disinformation, which she also considers to be one of the factors driving the “far right”. She also pointed the finger at traditional parties — which she called “moderate” — for having turned immigration and security into taboo subjects and having left the field open for the far right to capitalize on votes with these issues. Against the idea of ​​compulsory voting, she also had the agreement of her fellow panelist, António José Seguro, when he argued that populism can only be fought “through education”.

Who attacked: Gouveia e Melo, who would only be there the following day, was left with his ears burning with so much criticism from the liberal party. He gave the admiral an ironic welcome, but immediately attacked him for having made a pre-announcement “in his own way”. In this regard, he noted that Gouveia e Melo had made this initial draft “in writing, without the right to questions and only in one copy”. He also criticized the admiral for attacking the candidates with “party loyalties”, recalling that the “democratic system is made up of political parties, otherwise we would live in anarchy or an autocracy”.

Marques Mendes

Current status: Presidential candidate

How was the contact with voters: Marques Mendes did not shy away from contact with the young people who were there — quite the opposite. He went to the garden where students were enjoying the sun to socialize and, despite having coffee at a table with those closest to him, he made a point of going to the tables to greet potential voters. The courses served as a conversation starter; Mendes also recalled that he also studied Law in Coimbra, but showed some awkwardness in dealing with young people (at least compared to Seguro). His answers were short and the candidate did not know how to captivate those there. He remained standing, apparently shy. On the way to the auditorium, his outstretched hand was used to greet the few who were walking in the corridors. A selfie or two, not much, sealed Marques Mendes's visit there.

What topics did he prefer to talk about? Marques Mendes was alone on stage, unlike the guests who shared the spotlight on the discussion panels, and he took advantage of the conference’s theme — “Thinking Portugal” — to reflect on what is needed to make Portugal a “fairer, richer and more cultured society” in which “ideas, goals and ambition” are part of the vocabulary. He focused on young people, on the fundamental issue of having “better salaries” to stop the “drama” of young people emigrating, and even suggested that it “wouldn’t be a bad idea” for the government, unions and businesspeople to think about “a social concertation agreement aimed at increasing salaries”. He touched on the subject of “enormous social inequalities and asymmetries”, acknowledged that it is necessary to “distribute wealth better” and made a point of showing that despite Portugal being a “small country”, “it is not an irrelevant country”. In what could be a response to those who use his physical stature to attack him, Mendes said: “Smallness is not a sign of failure.”

Furthermore, he revisited his career more than once to justify the decisions he made — and which he considers to be the right ones, starting by stressing that an opposition leader who has a “strategic vision” and works to achieve it should not be seen as “weak” or “slack”, but he also explained the functions of the President, stating that he cannot govern or legislate, but also “is not a queen or king of England” as a “merely symbolic entity”. He also insisted once again on defending ethics: “There are no good political decisions with bad political decision-makers”.

Who attacked: Luís Marques Mendes' biggest criticism during his appearance at the Faculty of Law in Lisbon was aimed at Henrique Gouveia e Melo. And it wasn't even on stage. When journalists were speaking, the candidate for Belém opened the door and let in the person he already considers his opponent. He described the opinion piece in Expresso as “a declaration of candidacy” and, therefore, reinforced: “You are welcome.” He did not elaborate on the content written by the admiral, but in the lecture he gave him a response to the criticism made about the candidates' links to political parties: one of the commitments of a President of the Republic must be to carry out “a mandate with exemption, impartiality and independence.” He also indirectly attacked Marcelo (when he said that a country in constant dissolution “is not taken seriously”) and also Miguel Arruda (arguing that the AR should have already “created conditions” for the parliamentarian to be removed from office.

Marques Mendes went to college to campaign and welcomed Gouveia e Melo after “declaring candidacy”