Housing on hold: mandates were won but...

The 2025 legislative elections did not exactly bring a new scenario — they brought, rather, a continuation of trends that have been consolidating in recent years, but which have now become more evident and, at the same time, more worrying. The fragmentation of Parliament and the difficulty in building stable majorities have become the new norm in Portuguese politics. And, in this context, last Sunday's results left more doubts than certainties.

It is almost certain that the next government will be led by the PSD. However, this is a certainty that says little. We know who will lead, but we do not know with what support, with what room for maneuver, or with what legislative stability. And when we look at structural areas such as housing, we realize that the absence of medium and long-term commitments can compromise everything that is essential: predictability, investment and results.

From a housing perspective, some continuity is expected in recent policies. Measures aimed at stimulating the supply side, such as the revision of the land law or the much-talked-about (but never implemented) reduced VAT on construction, may now gain new momentum. But will this be enough? And, above all, will it be sustainable without a genuine inter-party pact that can withstand the test of time and changes in government?

This is precisely where the election results raise the greatest concerns. The traditional alternation between PSD and PS is, at least for now, on hold. With Chega reaching an electoral weight close to that of PS, the Portuguese political axis has become more uncertain and polarized. And this uncertainty complicates the construction of the lasting commitments that the country so desperately needs.

Most structural solutions to housing issues require more than simple arithmetic majorities — they require broad consensus. However, with such a divided Parliament, the PSD, even with the predictable support of the Liberal Initiative on certain issues, will not have enough strength. It will have to negotiate either with the PS or with Chega — two parties with profoundly different visions and very different agendas.

In the case of the PS, everything will depend on the new leadership. If it is a leadership close to the center and open to dialogue, there may be room for constructive understandings. But if it takes a more left-wing path, legislative blockage will be a constant threat. As for Chega, the difficulties are different: the party does not have housing as a priority and any negotiation with it will imply concessions on other, more controversial issues — which could divert attention from the real needs of the sector.

In short, these elections have not given us answers. What they have given us is a more complex, less predictable and more fragile political map. The need for lasting commitments is increasingly evident, but the ability to achieve them seems more distant today.

Mandates were won, but clarity was lost. And in the face of this, the country hesitates. And continues to wait.