What is the situation for Christians in Nigeria, and why is Trump threatening to intervene in the country?

US President Donald Trump threatened to take action against Nigeria if the government "continues to allow the murder of Christians."

In a video posted on the Truth Social platform, Trump stated that he intends to "do things to Nigeria that Nigeria won't like" and "go into that now disgraced country with guns blazing."

But the Trump administration's interest in the topic didn't come out of nowhere.

For months, activists and politicians in Washington, D.C., have been claiming that Islamic militants have been systematically attacking Christians in the African country.

However, the BBC has learned that some of the data used to support this conclusion is difficult to verify.

In September, American television host and comedian Bill Maher raised the stakes by describing what is happening as a "genocide." He cited the extremist group Boko Haram and stated that "they have killed more than 100,000 people since 2009 and burned down 18,000 churches."

Similar numbers have been circulating on social media.

The Nigerian government refuted these figures, calling them a "serious misrepresentation of reality."

He did not deny the existence of lethal violence in the country, but said that "terrorists attack all those who reject their murderous ideology: Muslims, Christians, and people who have no faith."

Organizations that monitor political violence in Nigeria indicate that the number of Christians killed is much lower than those circulating on social media, and claim that the majority of victims of jihadist groups are Muslim.

Nigerian security analyst Christian Ani said that while Christians have been attacked as part of a broader strategy of spreading terror, it is not possible to say that they are a deliberate target.

Nigeria faces several security crises across the country, not just violence from jihadist groups, and each has distinct causes.

With approximately 220 million inhabitants, the country has Muslim and Christian populations in similar proportions. However, in the north, where most attacks occur, Muslims are the majority.

What do American politicians say?

Ted Cruz, a Republican senator from Texas, has been addressing this issue for some time, and on October 7th, he posted on social media that "since 2009, more than 50,000 Christians in Nigeria have been massacred and more than 18,000 churches and 2,000 Christian schools have been destroyed."

In response to the BBC, Cruz's office stated that, unlike presenter Bill Maher, Cruz does not classify the case as "genocide," but as "persecution."

Senator Cruz accused Nigerian authorities of "ignoring and even facilitating the mass murder of Christians by Islamic jihadists." Trump reiterated this statement and called Nigeria a "disgraced country," saying that the government "continues to allow the murder of Christians."

The Nigerian government denies the accusations and claims it is doing everything possible to combat the jihadists. Some members of the government even viewed potential US assistance favorably, provided it was not unilateral.

Nigerian authorities have faced difficulties in containing jihadist groups and criminal networks. Almost every week there are reports of new attacks or kidnappings.

Boko Haram — known for the kidnapping of the Chibok girls just over a decade ago — has been active since 2009, focusing on the northeast of the country, a predominantly Muslim region.

Other jihadist groups have also emerged, such as the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), which operates in the same area.

The numbers regarding Christian deaths cited by some American politicians are alarming, but it is difficult to verify the accuracy of these figures.

Where do these numbers come from?

The statistics used by US politicians regarding violence against Christians in Nigeria have obscure origins.

In September, during a podcast, Senator Cruz directly mentioned a 2023 report by the International Society for Civil Liberties and the Rule of Law (InterSociety) — a non-governmental organization that monitors human rights violations in Nigeria.

The senator's office also sent the BBC a series of links to articles on the subject, most of them based on data from InterSociety itself.

Presenter Maher did not respond to the BBC's request regarding the origin of the figures he has cited, but, given the similarity to those used by Cruz, it is likely that he also based them on the organization's reports.

Despite the influence it may have on shaping American policy toward Nigeria, InterSociety's work is not very transparent.

In a report published in August, combining previous studies with updated figures for 2025, the organization stated that jihadist groups have killed more than 100,000 Christians in Nigeria since 2009. The document also cites the deaths of 60,000 "moderate Muslims" during the same period.

InterSociety did not provide a detailed list of sources, making it impossible to verify the total number of deaths reported.

In response to the criticism, the organization stated that "it is nearly impossible to reproduce all of our reports and references since 2010. Our simplest method is to gather summarized statistics and add new findings to compile our reports."

However, the sources cited by the organization do not match the published figures.

InterSociety states that, between January and August of this year, more than 7,000 Christians were killed in Nigeria, a number widely reported on social media, including by Republican Representative Riley M. Moore, one of the leading advocates for the issue in the U.S. House of Representatives.

The organization's report includes a list of 70 news reports used as the basis for its conclusions about attacks on Christians in 2025. However, in about half of these cases, the original articles do not mention the religious identity of the victims.

One example is the use of an Al Jazeera news report about an attack in the northeast of the country. InterSociety quotes the text saying that "no fewer than 40 farmers, mostly Christians, were kidnapped by Boko Haram in Damboa, Borno State."

The original report, however, did not mention that the victims were "mostly Christians."

When questioned by the BBC, InterSociety stated that it conducts complementary analyses to identify the origin of the victims, without explaining the method used in this specific case.

The organization said it based its findings on knowledge from local populations and "reports from Christian media."

By adding up the death tolls cited in the 70 reports, the BBC arrived at approximately 3,000 victims, less than half the total reported by InterSociety (7,000).

Some attacks also appear to have been counted more than once.

To justify the difference, the organization stated that it includes estimates of people it believes died in captivity and witness testimonies that it cannot publicly disclose.

Who is behind the murders?

Among the groups identified by InterSociety as responsible for attacks in Nigeria are Islamic militants such as Boko Haram and also Fulani herdsmen.

The Fulani are a predominantly Muslim ethnic group found in several West African countries, who traditionally make their living from raising cattle and sheep.

The inclusion of Fulani herdsmen — described by InterSociety as "jihadists" in all its reports — is a source of controversy in the country regarding how these episodes should be classified.

Although the Fulani are mostly Muslim, researchers studying the subject reject the idea that it is a religious conflict, stating that the disputes generally involve access to land and water.

Fulani herdsmen have already clashed with Muslim and Christian communities in different regions of Nigeria.

Security analyst Ani states that "calling them jihadists is an exaggeration. This has nothing to do with ideology, but with criminal and uncontrolled elements."

According to Confidence McHarry, senior security analyst at SBM Intelligence, a consultancy specializing in Africa, the conflicts often stem from ethnic tensions and disputes over natural resources.

"There may be an ethnic component; they seek to seize land and expand territory, but as they displace communities and attack places of worship, these episodes begin to be seen from a different perspective," he states.

InterSociety also mentions the so-called "bandits," as criminal groups operating in the northwest of Nigeria are known, mostly made up of Fulani people, involved in kidnappings and murders of both Christians and Muslims.

Who has been campaigning about this?

Concerns about alleged threats to Christians in Nigeria have been discussed for years by politicians in the US and by international Christian organizations.

In recent years, the issue has been raised in the US by the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) — a group banned in Nigeria that fights for the creation of an independent state in the country's predominantly Christian southeast.

The Nigerian army accuses InterSociety of having links to IPOB, but the organization denies any relationship.

Another separatist group, the Biafra Republic Government in Exile (BRGIE), also claims to have played a central role in disseminating the narrative of a "Christian genocide" to the United States Congress.

In a statement, BRGIE described this campaign as a "highly orchestrated effort," saying it had hired lobbying firms and met with American officials, including Senator Ted Cruz.

The lawmaker declined to comment on the matter.

The figures released by InterSociety regarding the murder of Christians in Nigeria are much higher than those recorded by other sources.

The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) project, which closely monitors violence in West Africa, presents very different estimates, with traceable and verifiable sources.

Acled's senior analyst, Ladd Serwat, did not directly comment on the InterSociety reports, but told the BBC that the figure of 100,000 deaths cited on social media would include all acts of political violence that have occurred in Nigeria. Therefore, it would not be correct to say that this represents the total number of Christians killed since 2009.

According to the Acled project, since 2009, just under 53,000 civilian deaths—both Muslim and Christian—have been recorded in episodes of political violence.

Between 2020 and September 2025, approximately 21,000 civilians were killed in kidnappings, attacks, cases of sexual violence, and explosions. During that same period, the project identified 384 attacks in which Christians were specifically targeted, resulting in 317 deaths, a small fraction of the total victims.

To compile its data, Acled uses information from traditional media outlets, verified social media posts, human rights groups, and local partners.

And what about Trump's numbers?

In a post on the Truth Social platform last Friday (October 31), Trump stated that 3,100 Christians were killed in Nigeria. According to a White House advisor, the number refers to a report by the organization Open Doors on deaths recorded between October 2023 and October 2024.

Open Doors is a Christian organization that researches cases of religious persecution around the world.

According to the report, 3,100 Christians were killed during that period, in addition to 2,320 Muslims.

The organization includes the so-called "Fulani terrorist groups" among those responsible and claims they were responsible for nearly a third of Christian deaths.

Open Doors senior researcher Frans Veerman said that "Christians continue to be targeted, but increasingly some Muslims are also being attacked by Fulani militants."

Analysts point out that there have been several violent attacks against mosques and Muslim communities in northwestern Nigeria.

"It can be said that this is part of a broader picture of insecurity," said McHarry of the consulting firm SBM Intelligence. "The reason why these attacks are not attributed a religious character is that the perpetrators, for the most part, are also Muslims."