Copom starts meeting this Tuesday to define the future of Selic

The Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) begins another meeting this Tuesday 17th to discuss the future of the country's basic interest rate, known as Selic.

In recent meetings, the group has successively raised the rate, reaching the current level of 14.75%. Now, however, the tendency is for Copom to interrupt the upward cycle.

The Copom's work is scheduled to conclude next Wednesday the 18th, when the decision on the new level of the basic interest rate will be announced.

Part of the expectation regarding the interruption of the Selic rate hike is based on the document that summarized the last meeting, when Copom remained firm in the idea of ​​trying to keep inflation at the center of the target. The committee conditioned any changes in the Selic rate on the economic environment, marked, according to the group, by “high uncertainty”.

Despite doubts about the global economy – with trade disputes and wars in the Middle East and Eastern Europe – domestic inflation has seen some relief. Recently, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) showed that official inflation slowed to 0.26% in May. In the last twelve months, inflation is at 5.32%.

Divided market

Given the lack of certainty about what will happen, the market is making somewhat divided bets.

According to the Focus Bulletin , the Selic rate should end the year at 14.75%, which means that Copom may even halt the hike, but an eventual drop in the basic interest rate is still far from materializing. Meanwhile, B3's probabilities panel shows that 56.3% of bets on Copom options indicate a Selic hike of 0.25 percentage points.