Finance Minister confident of 0.3% GDP surplus this year

The Government remains confident that a budget surplus of 0.3% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be achieved this year, the Finance Minister said today.

Speaking during the discussion of the Government Program in parliament, Joaquim Miranda Sarmento recalled that the AD Government "exceeded expectations" last year, achieving a surplus of 0.7%, "more than triple what the previous government had predicted".

For 2025, the Government maintains its "budgetary balance commitment" and projects a surplus of 0.3% of GDP, even at a time when there are already institutions that monitor Portuguese public accounts that project a return to budget deficits this year or next.

The Bank of Portugal forecasts a deficit of 0.1% of GDP this year and 1.3% next year, while the Public Finance Council points to a balanced budget surplus in 2025 and a deficit of 1% in 2026.

The European Commission anticipates that Portugal will achieve a budget surplus of 0.1% of GDP this year, which will turn into a deficit of 0.6% in 2026.

Despite maintaining the estimates, the minister assumed that 2026 will be "a more demanding year from a budgetary point of view, given that the full implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Plan in the loan component represents an expense".

Miranda Sarmento also highlighted that the executive estimates that the public debt ratio will fall to 91.5% of GDP, pointing out that "this year, 2025 or at the latest in 2026, Portugal will reach a public debt below the eurozone average".

The minister admitted that international uncertainty "makes the basic assumption of budgetary balance even more critical, in order to protect Portugal from possible negative external shocks", reiterating the Government's commitment to this balance.

The Government remains confident that a budget surplus of 0.3% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be achieved this year, the Finance Minister said today.

Speaking during the discussion of the Government Program in parliament, Joaquim Miranda Sarmento recalled that the AD Government "exceeded expectations" last year, achieving a surplus of 0.7%, "more than triple what the previous government had predicted".

For 2025, the Government maintains its "budgetary balance commitment" and projects a surplus of 0.3% of GDP, even at a time when there are already institutions that monitor Portuguese public accounts that project a return to budget deficits this year or next.

The Bank of Portugal forecasts a deficit of 0.1% of GDP this year and 1.3% next year, while the Public Finance Council points to a balanced budget surplus in 2025 and a deficit of 1% in 2026.

The European Commission anticipates that Portugal will achieve a budget surplus of 0.1% of GDP this year, which will turn into a deficit of 0.6% in 2026.

Despite maintaining the estimates, the minister assumed that 2026 will be "a more demanding year from a budgetary point of view, given that the full implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Plan in the loan component represents an expense".

Miranda Sarmento also highlighted that the executive estimates that the public debt ratio will fall to 91.5% of GDP, pointing out that "this year, 2025 or at the latest in 2026, Portugal will reach a public debt below the eurozone average".

The minister admitted that international uncertainty "makes the basic assumption of budgetary balance even more critical, in order to protect Portugal from possible negative external shocks", reiterating the Government's commitment to this balance.

The Government remains confident that a budget surplus of 0.3% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be achieved this year, the Finance Minister said today.

Speaking during the discussion of the Government Program in parliament, Joaquim Miranda Sarmento recalled that the AD Government "exceeded expectations" last year, achieving a surplus of 0.7%, "more than triple what the previous government had predicted".

For 2025, the Government maintains its "budgetary balance commitment" and projects a surplus of 0.3% of GDP, even at a time when there are already institutions that monitor Portuguese public accounts that project a return to budget deficits this year or next.

The Bank of Portugal forecasts a deficit of 0.1% of GDP this year and 1.3% next year, while the Public Finance Council points to a balanced budget surplus in 2025 and a deficit of 1% in 2026.

The European Commission anticipates that Portugal will achieve a budget surplus of 0.1% of GDP this year, which will turn into a deficit of 0.6% in 2026.

Despite maintaining the estimates, the minister assumed that 2026 will be "a more demanding year from a budgetary point of view, given that the full implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Plan in the loan component represents an expense".

Miranda Sarmento also highlighted that the executive estimates that the public debt ratio will fall to 91.5% of GDP, pointing out that "this year, 2025 or at the latest in 2026, Portugal will reach a public debt below the eurozone average".

The minister admitted that international uncertainty "makes the basic assumption of budgetary balance even more critical, in order to protect Portugal from possible negative external shocks", reiterating the Government's commitment to this balance.