Gouveia falls, Marques Mendes closes the gap

The first known data seems to suggest that the formal presentation of the candidacy for Belém did not bring good news to Henrique Gouveia e Melo. According to the Intercampus barometer for Correio da Manhã, CMTV and Negócios, the admiral fell 8.3 percentage points compared to the last study, carried out in March, remaining ahead of the race but now with 27.3% of the votes (in March he had 35.6%).

This also means that, according to the same study, Luís Marques Mendes — a candidate already officially supported by the PSD — has 18.5% of voting intentions, 4.6 percentage points more than in March. Next comes António José Seguro, with 11.8% of the voting intentions of those surveyed, after having presented his candidacy this Sunday in Caldas da Rainha and (so far) without counting on the official support of the PS.

The same study places André Ventura, Mariana Mortágua and António Sampaio da Nóvoa in the following places, in that order. If there were to be a second round, as the parties anticipate, Gouveia e Melo would appear to beat any of his opponents (his name is being tested against those of Marques Mendes and Seguro), but his results are once again lower than in March — he wins against Marques Mendes, but now has 10.5 percentage points less than in March.

The fieldwork for this survey consisted of 616 interviews conducted from June 5 to 15, including the effect of the official presentation of Gouveia e Melo's candidacy and only very slightly that of Seguro, presented on the last day of fieldwork.