Welfare benefit has an explosive increase in spending and may surpass Bolsa Família

Amid the confrontation between the Executive and Congress over the provisional measure that increases taxes to balance public accounts, a mandatory expense consumes an increasingly larger portion of the Budget: the Continuous Benefit Payment (BPC), which is growing explosively, threatening the sustainability of the fiscal framework and, in two years, may exceed the value of Bolsa-Família.

The possibility of reviewing the benefit, adjusting concession criteria or the frequency of review, was one of the topics presented by the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, during a meeting with party leaders on Sunday night (8).

The benefit — equivalent to a monthly minimum wage (R$1,518) — is intended for two groups: poor elderly people over 65 years old and people with disabilities (PWDs) of any age. To be eligible, the beneficiary must be part of a family with a per capita income of less than 25% of the minimum wage (R$379.50). In the case of PWDs, the condition must prevent them from exercising work activities under equal conditions with others.

The number of beneficiaries increases every year and the successive adjustments above inflation – which follow the policy of increasing the minimum wage – have put pressure on the Budget, compressing the space for discretionary expenses, such as investments.

According to consolidated data up to February 2025, the number of beneficiaries jumped from 5.12 million in January 2023 to 6.26 million — a 22% increase in the current government of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) alone. The increase is more than double that recorded in the entire administration of Jair Bolsonaro (PL), which saw an increase of 10%, and also exceeds the growth in the governments of Michel Temer (7.8%) and Dilma Rousseff (4.5%) in her second term.

Monthly spending surpassed the unprecedented mark of R$10 billion as of January 2025, according to the Ministry of Development and Social Assistance, Family and Fight against Hunger (MDS). From January to April, disbursements totaled R$41.83 billion — a real increase of 11.6% compared to the same period in 2024.

"A mandatory expenditure growing consistently at double digits is absolutely unfeasible", admitted the Secretary of the National Treasury, Rogério Ceron, when releasing the figures.

Hugo Motta reinforced concern

Concern has also reached Congress. The Speaker of the House, Hugo Motta (Republicans-PB), publicly criticized the way the Executive Branch is conducting the program. “There is a complete distortion in how the BPC is granted,” he said on Monday (9), at an event promoted by the newspaper Valor Econômico .

“Nobody is against the benefit, but it needs to be given to those who really need it. There is no minimum criteria or filter. The BPC should be bigger than the Bolsa Família in two or three years, even with a smaller number of beneficiaries.”

Although Bolsa Família serves around 20.5 million families, BPC, because it has a fixed value of one minimum wage per person, has a greater budgetary impact per beneficiary — more than double the average paid by Bolsa Família (R$660 per family).

The BPC budget for 2025 is R$119.1 billion, compared to R$158.6 billion allocated to Bolsa Família, according to the Budget Guidelines Bill (PLDO). In more than a thousand municipalities — including capitals such as Curitiba, Belo Horizonte and Recife —, BPC already consumes more resources than Bolsa Família.

Congress made access to the benefit more flexible

The BPC's growth trajectory intensified from mid-2022, when Congress approved changes that made access rules more flexible. The changes allowed more than one benefit to be granted per family, expanded the list of recognized disabilities — with emphasis on autism spectrum disorder — and facilitated judicial access. Since then, the program has accumulated 31 consecutive months of growth.

In an attempt to contain the expansion, in 2024 the federal government revised the access criteria and increased oversight. Among the measures adopted are mandatory registration reviews every two years, a requirement to update the Single Registry (CadÚnico), and the inclusion of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) code for beneficiaries under 65 years of age. The re-registration of more than 120,000 people was also carried out with data cross-referencing between agencies to avoid fraud and duplication.

At the same time, in December of that year, the government tried to pass a bill in Congress to tighten the rules. Among the points were the requirement of biometrics to prove life, the use of income from family members who do not live with the beneficiary in calculating family income, and stricter criteria to define the degree of disability.

The proposal, however, faced resistance, including among members of parliament from the allied base. The final text was approved with modifications that significantly softened the original project, removing, for example, the inclusion of income from non-resident family members and the automatic exclusion of people with mild disabilities.

Since January 2025, the MDS has been conducting a new review of 2.8 million registrations. But the results of the effort, so far, have been modest. The savings, initially estimated at R$4 billion, were revised to R$2 billion over two years.

Between 2026 and 2029, the projection is to save R$12.4 billion — a small amount considering the speed of growth in expenditure, which could reach R$140 billion in 2026. The 2026 LDO estimates that spending on BPC will grow by R$65.4 billion between 2025 and 2029, while controls will generate only R$15.4 billion in savings.

Judicialization and informality increase demand

According to the government, the growth of BPC is driven by multiple factors: population aging, an increase in the number of people with disabilities — as shown by the Census and the historical series of the Continuous PNAD — and, mainly, by the growing volume of judicial concessions.

The MDS reports that 25% of recent concessions were determined by the Court, many without presenting the CID — a requirement that only became mandatory in December 2024. The government also claims that several court decisions have ignored legal requirements for granting BPC.

Furthermore, the progressive dismantling of formal social security, combined with the increase in informality, has led more Brazilians to seek the benefit. “The perception is that BPC is one of the few assistance policies accessible without social security contributions, a kind of 'escape valve' in times of crisis”, says labor lawyer Luis Gustavo Nicoli.

Leandro Pereira, a social security lawyer, points to the 2019 Social Security Reform as a catalyst for this trend. “Many people who previously contributed to retire with a minimum wage decided to stop contributing after the reform and, upon reaching the minimum age, started to request the BPC, which guarantees the same amount without requiring contribution time.”

According to him, there are still operational problems that open the door to fraud. “Today we see companies using social networks to attract customers and submit requests through power of attorney. It’s a real industry. The INSS system allows the issuance of several powers of attorney per CPF, which facilitates irregularities.”

Leandro also warns of fraud involving immigrants. “There are cases of people who come to Brazil, register, receive the benefit and return to their country of origin. Since the interview can be conducted by a representative, there is no need to return to Brazil.” The weakness of updating CadÚnico — required only every two years — is, for him, an additional facilitator.

Experts defend benefits with governance

Despite the distortions, experts advocate maintaining the BPC as an essential instrument of social protection. “The State is currently unable to provide minimum services, such as health or security, to the point of replacing the BPC. In many cases, the benefit is the only way to survive for those who cannot afford to pay for a medical exam or wait years for care in the SUS,” says Pereira.

He acknowledges the need for improvements, but considers it unfeasible to end the program given Brazil’s inequalities. “It may even seem justifiable in some cities, but looking at Brazil as a whole, the BPC is still essential.”

Luis Gustavo Nicoli denies the overlap with Bolsa Família, an argument used by critics. “They serve different audiences and can operate in a complementary manner, as long as there is governance and intelligent data crossing,” he says. “While Bolsa Família is focused on family composition and encourages work, BPC serves people with less economic autonomy.”

When contacted by Gazeta do Povo , the Ministry of Development and Social Assistance highlighted, in a note, the restructuring of the Department of Social Welfare Benefits as part of the efforts to improve the management of the program. It also reported that there are partnerships with the Institute of Applied Economic Research (IPEA) for the development of longitudinal studies and research, in addition to the role of the Federal Court of Auditors (TCU) in oversight.

The ministry reiterated that the BPC plays a central role in reducing poverty among the elderly and people with disabilities. “Because it is linked to the minimum wage, it is one of the most progressive income transfers in Brazilian social policy, with a greater impact than other welfare programs,” it concluded.