AD dominates poorer municipalities, Chega leads in municipalities with more crime and more immigrants

AD (PSD/CDS) dominates in the municipalities with the lowest purchasing power in Portugal. The center-right coalition was the most voted party in the 10 Portuguese municipalities (Baião, Celorico de Basto, Vimioso, Vinhais, Valpaços, Penamacor, Nordeste (Azores), and Porto Moniz, Ponta do Sol and Câmara de Lobos (these 3 in Madeira)) where the GDP per capita is lowest in the country, according to the INE.

AD maintained the leadership in eight of these 10 municipalities and managed to steal Baião, in the Porto district, and Penamacor, in Castelo Branco, from the PS.

In 9 of these 10 municipalities, the AD obtained votes above 40%, with the exception of Penamacor. In two of them, it obtained votes above 50%: Valpaços, Vila Real (56%), and Ponta do Sol, in Madeira (45%).

The PS appears 7 times in second place (Baião, Celorico de Basto, Vimioso, Vinhais, Penamacor, Nordeste and Porto Moniz), while Chega appears 3 times in second place (Ponta do Sol, Câmara de Lobos and Valpaços).

Looking at the municipalities with the most crimes recorded per 100 inhabitants (including all types of crimes, in a compilation made by the “Criminality in Portugal” platform), Chega was the most voted party in 6 municipalities (Albufeira, Loulé, Sines, Lagoa, Portimão and Silves), just 1 more than in the 2024 elections (Sines).

The AD dominates in two of the municipalities with the most crime in the country (Porto and Lisbon), while the PS took control of two of these councils (Grândola and Alcácer do Sal).

AD appears in second place 5 times, with PS appearing in second place 3 times and Chega twice.

Analyzing the municipalities where immigrants make up the largest proportion of the population in Portugal, according to data from the Bank of Portugal, Chega won in 7 of these 10 municipalities: Odemira, Ferreira do Alentejo, Almeirim, Albufeira, Aljezur, Vila do Bispo and Loulé.

AD has already won in Cinfães, Odivelas and Tavira. A year ago, the PS won 8 of these municipalities. Now, AD has stolen Tavira, Cinfães and Odivelas from the PS. Chega has taken Odemira, Ferreira do Alentejo, Almeirim, Aljezur and Vila do Bispo from the PS.

The PS appears in second place six times, the AD three times and Chega once.

PS lost 49 thousand votes in the richest municipalities in the country, Chega won 31 thousand

The PS lost almost 49 thousand votes in the richest municipalities in the country in the legislative elections (according to data from GPEARI – Planning, Strategy, Evaluation and International Relations Office – Ministry of Finance), with Chega winning more than 31 thousand.

This is the result of the early elections, which culminated in the PS's catastrophe and Chega's rise: both parties have 58 deputies, and 4 of the emigration constituencies still need to be counted.

The AD lost almost 8 thousand votes in some of these municipalities, but won 6,500 in others, resulting in a negative balance of 1,500.

In the municipality of Lisbon, AD maintained its lead with 32%, but lost 6 thousand votes. PS lost 3 points and 12 thousand votes. Chega gained 3 points and won 7 thousand more votes.

Among the smaller parties, Livre rose 1 point and gained 4,000 votes. IL also gained one point and 5,000 votes. PCP overtook Bloco and won 4% of the votes, in line with previous results. BE fell 2 points and lost 8,000 votes. PAN maintained its 2%, despite losing 1,600 votes.

In the municipality of Oeiras, AD maintained its lead with 33%, with PS remaining in second place, but with 3 points less and 3 thousand votes less. Chega maintained its third position and gained more than 1,500 votes. IL remains in fourth place, with 2 more points, gaining more than 1,500 votes.

Livre gained 1 more point (8%) and 1,300 more votes. The PCP overtook the BE, maintaining 3%, while the Bloco de Esquerda fell 3 points and lost 2,700 votes. The PAN lost 1 point, remaining with 2%.

In the municipality of Cascais, AD maintained its lead with 34%, despite having lost a thousand votes. PS maintained second place, but lost 3 points, remaining with 20% and losing more than 4 thousand votes. Chega rose 3 points and gained 2,400 votes.

Again in fourth position, IL rose more than a point to 9% and gained 1,300 votes.

The PCP-PEV overtook the Bloco among the most voted, despite having lost votes. Next came the PAN and the BE, both below 2%.

In the municipality of Sintra, Chega won André Ventura's hometown, rising 5 points to 26% and gaining another 8 thousand votes.

AD maintained second place, rising 2 points and with 3 thousand more votes, totaling more than 50 thousand. PS sank from first to third place, with 5 fewer points and 12 thousand fewer votes.

IL remained at 6%, with 600 more votes, while Livre rose by more than 1 point. Next came PCP, Bloco de Esquerda and PAN.

Outside Greater Lisbon, further north, in Porto, the AD maintained its lead, rising 1 point to 35%, remaining at around 48 thousand votes. The PS maintained second place in the undefeated city, but lost 8 thousand votes, falling 5 points.

Chega rose 4 points and won more than 5 thousand votes. IL maintained its fourth position, gaining more than 1 point and 1,500 more votes. Livre rose more than 1 point, with more than 2 thousand votes. PCP also rose and surpassed Bloco, with 4%, while Bloco had 3% and PAN was below 2%.

Right next door, in Matosinhos, AD won this riverside municipality. Luís Montenegro's coalition won more than 1,300 votes, totaling almost 33 thousand and taking 31%. PS fell 6 points and lost six votes. Chega maintained third place, with 5 more points and almost 5 thousand more votes.

IL appears in fourth position with 7%, followed by Livre with 5%. PCP, Bloco and PAN were each below 3%

In the extreme south of the country, Chega maintained and strengthened its lead in Loulé: 6 more points to 34% and almost 2 thousand more votes. AD maintained its second position, but also strengthened its lead: 4 more points to 29% and 1 thousand more votes.

The PS returned to third place, but lost 5 points and two thousand votes. The IL returned to fourth place, with 4%, followed by Livre with 3%. Bloco, ADN, PAN and PCP closed the list.

In the country's richest municipalities, AD leads in 5 (Lisbon, Oeiras, Cascais, Porto and Matosinhos), with Chega leading in Sintra and Loulé.

Chega stole Sintra from the PS compared to 2024, with the socialists also losing Matosinhos, but to the AD.