Apples and Potatoes Worth Their Weight in Gold? How Spring Frosts Will Drive Up Food Prices

"I look at the garden and tears come to my eyes! Cherry, apple trees, yellow plum: delicate leaves, flowers and ovaries - everything was killed by frost. They turned black, as if scalded with boiling water. Last year there was a catastrophe due to the cold, and this year there will probably be almost no fruit or berries," Tambov gardener Nina Yakovleva told NI.

In recent days, not only Tambov, but also Belgorod, Lipetsk, Bryansk, Kursk regions, Stavropol Krai and a number of other regions of the country have been hit by the elements.

As Vasily Kutyin , Director of Analytics at Ingosstrakh Bank, told NI, climate swings have hit crop production hard this year. Three waves of recurrent spring frosts in Kuban have proven critical for many crops. 12% of sugar beet crops have suffered due to spring frosts.

"In addition, the bad weather will lead to a 50% drop in the harvest of apricots, peaches and cherries. The potato harvest will also suffer, the yield, according to preliminary estimates, will fall by 15-20%," the expert said.

The Voronezh Region government has already published a preliminary report on the consequences of the catastrophic spring frosts in the region that hit in late April and early May: in low-lying areas, the air temperature dropped to minus 8–10 degrees .

"More than 30 thousand hectares of crops were damaged, the most serious being winter crops and sugar beets. The ovaries of more than 2.6 thousand hectares of orchards and berry fields were also damaged, which is 44% of all fruit-bearing plantings in the region," the National Union of Agricultural Insurers ( NSA ) reported.

The calculation of the damage caused by the bad weather has not yet been completed. The authorities do not rule out that a regional emergency regime will have to be introduced to eliminate the consequences of the disaster.

“Agricultural producers in the Voronezh region who suffered from frost and who insured their crops are advised to promptly contact their insurance companies,” said NSA President Kornei Bizhdov .

According to him, 58% of winter sowing areas were protected under the "multi-risk" insurance program. If the risk of frost was included in the policy, farmers will be able to count on compensation. The payment will allow, in particular, in the event of an emergency, to receive money for re-sowing grain crops.

According to the NSA, in 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, farmers in the Voronezh Region received 155 million rubles in insurance payments for the loss of agricultural crops. Meanwhile, the NSA did not receive data on the insurance of gardens and berry fields in the region at the time of the frosts. If gardeners did not manage to insure the risks before the elements hit, they will not receive any compensation for the loss of the crop.

In Tambov Oblast, where spring frosts destroyed crops on an area of ​​more than 21 thousand hectares, the lost crops had to be resown. The cold weather damaged the flowers and ovaries of stone fruits and early varieties of pome crops, as well as berry bushes. The damage is still being assessed, but the authorities have already stated that the introduction of a state of emergency, which allows gardeners to receive insurance compensation for lost crops, is not planned in the region.

This means that local gardeners will have to compensate for the damage at their own expense . And this means that rising prices for scarce products are inevitable.

According to the Governor of the Bryansk Region, Alexander Bogomaz , frosts capable of damaging crops and garden plants continued in this region until May 14. A similar situation developed in the Moscow Region and a number of other regions.

According to Denis Kratyuk, head of the Crimean Ministry of Agriculture, the harvest of peaches, cherries and plums on the peninsula will decrease by 20% due to the effects of frosts. Due to the cold, spring barley and oats have stopped growing and are drying up, mustard, flax and coriander plants are in a depressed state, and fruit trees have suffered.

All this is fraught with a sharp rise in prices for sugar and fruit and vegetable products in the coming months, economists predict.

As Ekaterina Shveeva , associate professor of the Department of Management and State Management of the Faculty of Economics and Management of Moscow State University of Management and Technology Razumovsky, told NI, this year several regions of the country may face a shortage of harvest due to spring frosts. All this may lead to a deficit on the domestic market and a significant increase in prices for fruits, berries, flour, and bakery products.

"There are several reasons. Firstly, if winter grains (wheat, barley and others) are at the beginning of the growing season, frosts can damage the ears and reduce the yield. Secondly, winter thaws. In most regions of Russia where fruits are grown, the winter temperatures were above zero for a long time, and then the weather suddenly returned to the climatic norm. Because of this, already awakened plants were exposed to frosts and suffered serious damage. Thirdly, delayed flowering. If frosts catch flowering trees, this can lead to the flowers falling off and a decrease in ovaries. Also, if the flowering period is shifted due to cold, this will reduce the overall fruit harvest," the expert notes.

The extent of the damage, she estimates, depends heavily on how quickly temperatures recover and how resilient the plants are to cold stress.

Oleg Abelev, PhD in Economics and head of the analytical department of the investment company Rikom-Trust, believes that more accurate data on the scale of the increase in prices for agricultural products can be obtained closer to the end of May, since the production of agricultural products and harvesting is an extended seasonal process.

" Retail prices for fruits may increase by 20-25% . Much depends on the situation in three regions - Crimea, Dagestan and Krasnodar Krai, which provide up to 80% of fruit consumption," the expert believes.

In his opinion, a significant reduction in the potato harvest is not expected, because the frosts should not have had a serious impact on the tubers, but the yield will still decrease, since the soil is cold.

"Russia mainly produces potatoes that go straight to the shelves itself, and imports seed potatoes. There is a risk that due to the shortfall in the harvest, it will be necessary to increase the import of seed potatoes," the economist notes.

As NI reported earlier, due to last year's crop failure, potato prices in Russia have already skyrocketed three to four times. Consumers, seeing potatoes on the shelves not for 35, but for 120-350 rubles, experienced a real shock. Many began to talk about how such a situation could force people to plow their lawns and return to "anti-crisis" planting of potatoes in their summer cottages.

According to Boris Kopeikin , chief economist at the P. A. Stolypin Institute for Growth Economics, the dynamics of potato prices against the backdrop of a poor harvest and a reduction in plantings last year are no longer encouraging.

"But noticeably increased prices are a signal to farmers about the need to increase production and investment in seed production and new storage facilities. Imports will also restrain price growth. At the same time, production could potentially be much higher, and prices significantly lower, as was already the case under favorable weather conditions in 2023," the expert believes.

In his opinion, the dependence on imports for fruits and berries is much higher, so much will depend on the dynamics of the exchange rate, as well as on the harvest in other countries.

"Apparently, the large-scale April frosts in Turkey may lead to an increase in prices for imported products. The situation with sugar is much more stable, including due to the accumulated reserves from previous years. According to Rosstat, the cost of sugar has increased by less than 2.5% over the year. Russia actively exports sugar to other countries, so prices within the country correlate with world prices. And on the world market, sugar is now tens of percent cheaper than at the peaks of 2023-2024," the expert noted.

As Vasily Kutyin , Director of Analytics at Ingosstrakh Bank, told NI, the situation with the decline in potato harvest this year can be corrected by export deliveries from Belarus and Egypt.

"It is important to remember that potatoes and sugar beets are goods with elastic demand, i.e. the growth of prices for these goods changes demand for them only slightly. Potatoes in the Russian Federation have traditionally been one of the key household products, especially for families with medium and low incomes, ranking second in importance after bread. Sugar beets are a significant raw material product, sugar is also critically important for most households, being an affordable sweet and widely used in home canning," the source told NI.

According to him, the shortage of potatoes and sugar beets will inevitably complicate the situation with many food products, since potatoes and sugar are included in a wide range of mass-market products - confectionery, drinks, side dishes, salads, etc.

"Related industries will also suffer, as the shortage of potatoes will cause interruptions in the supply of raw materials for the production of starch and alcohol. The shortage of sugar beets will inevitably reduce the production of its derivatives - molasses, livestock feed and bioethanol used in the fuel industry," Vasily Kutyin noted.

He is convinced that imports are unlikely to significantly reduce prices for scarce products, since weather anomalies and crop yield reductions are observed all over the world.

"In the current situation, it is possible to organize the sale of potato and sugar reserves from Rosrezerv and monitor prices directly in order to avoid price collusion. It is also necessary to develop programs to support crop production for crops affected by crop failure, using tax breaks and direct subsidies, as well as through the development of agricultural insurance. The problem of crop failures due to climate change requires a systemic solution, joint work of the state and the private sector," the expert is convinced.