No matter how much you feed a villager, he still looks towards the city

Active migration of Kazakhstanis from the regions to large cities - Astana, Almaty, Shymkent - continues: last year was a record for the number of arrivals in a quarter of a century. According to analysts' forecasts, by 2050, these three megalopolises will be home to a total of 36 percent of the country's entire urban population. Are all the numerous programs to attract young people and specialists to the villages really doomed to failure?

The Power of Attraction of Megacities

Urbanization is a completely logical process: people want to live where they can earn money, educate their children, and enjoy the basic benefits of civilization. According to forecasts from JSC “Center for the Development of Labor Resources,” published in the public domain, by 2030 the urban population of Kazakhstan will grow to 14 million (currently 12.7 million). By 2050, it will already be 19 million people out of 25.4 million Kazakhstanis.

Active migration is confirmed by the National Statistics Service report: in 2024, the number of people moving within the country increased by 47.4 percent compared to 2023.

The centers of attraction remain megacities: more than 64 thousand Kazakhstanis have come to Astana for permanent residence, 60 thousand to Almaty, and 31 thousand to Shymkent.

- I met with Almaty urbanists who, with the participation of foreign specialists, calculated that the population of the Almaty agglomeration and Almaty region will increase to 7.5-8 million people in the next two decades, - says Majilis member Sergei PONOMAREV. - Almaty is a well-fed city, and everyone wants to live here, well, and in three or four other cities.

On the other hand, it is worth recalling that billions have been invested in programs to support rural regions and attract specialists there.

When you analyze them, you get the impression that each ministry wrote them for itself and many duplicate each other. But five years ago, President Kassym-Zhomart TOKAYEV proposed that the government abandon cumbersome state programs and switch to the format of specific projects aimed at solving urgent problems of regions and cities.

Too much pay dissonance

For example, since July 2009, the state program “With a diploma - to the village!” has been launched. The project is necessary, it is aimed at providing social support measures in the form of a lifting allowance and a budget loan for the purchase or construction of housing for doctors, teachers, employees of the agro-industrial complex, and civil servants of the akims’ offices.

According to the Ministry of National Economy, from 2009 to 2023, more than 105 thousand specialists received lifting allowances in the amount of 20.3 billion tenge, of which more than 48 thousand were issued housing loans in the amount of 160.4 billion tenge. Since last year, the size of the budget loan for this project has been increased from 1.5 to 2.5 thousand MCI (9.8 million tenge) for those who arrived in district centers, for rural settlements - up to 2 thousand MCI (7.8 million tenge) for 15 years with an interest rate of 0.01 percent per annum of the loan amount.

However, even under such conditions, not everyone can purchase square meters in the outback, which is due to the lack of comfortable housing, low wages for newcomers, the presence of a bad credit history for borrowers, and other factors.

The program has been running for 14 years. At the same time, there is a shortage of more than 5,000 teachers across the country, which was repeatedly mentioned by the former Prime Minister Alikhan SMAILOV. The deficit of doctors in the public sector in rural areas is more than 1.1 thousand people. In the villages closest to Almaty, local residents constantly complain about the shortage of specialists.

- Unfortunately, many adopted programs are seriously stalling, - Ponomarev states. - Despite the fact that financial resources are allocated to university graduates, young doctors, teachers so that they go to the villages, it is not possible to keep young people in the regions. There is too much dissonance in wages. Therefore, urbanization cannot be stopped. Meanwhile, we are losing the original village, what is most important for Kazakhs. Cities alone will not be able to feed a country whose purpose is agrarian.

- The trend is that the village is dying, and agricultural successes are episodic. Villagers will try to send their children to the city so that they stay there. This will only worsen the problems of agricultural development, - economist Olzhas KUDAIBERGENOV expressed his opinion. - Almost all state programs in the village are subject to bureaucracy, because of which money arrives late. But it is possible to do so that people do not flee the village, to plan the future: where and when new deposits will be developed, enterprises, public utilities will open, to predict the demographics for each region and, taking this into account, plan housing policy, support measures. Gradually equalize the development of villages and cities. If this is not done, then urbanization will lead to an increase in unemployment and crime in the cities.

Billions have been pledged, but there are problems with water

The lack of basic amenities - gas, water, sewage, good communications, quality medical care - is another reason why people flee to the cities.

In 2023, the level of provision of 6,356 villages with infrastructure facilities and services amounted to an average of 64.3 percent across the country. At the same time, the situation is not bad in Mangistau (72.4 percent), Atyrau (70 percent) and Aktobe (69.6 percent) regions. The level is low in East Kazakhstan region (58 percent), Ulytau (57 percent) and Abay (55.4 percent) regions.

Many rural residents, and now city dwellers, have problems accessing quality drinking water. The Prime Minister's website provides figures for 2024: out of 6,356 villages, 5,130 are provided with water supply services.

There are several programs to provide settlements with everything they need. For example, “Aul - El besigi” has been operating in the regions for the sixth year. According to the Ministry of National Economy, 524 billion tenge were allocated from the republican budget for 2019-2023. They were used to build and repair 578 housing and communal services facilities, 1.7 thousand social facilities and more than 3,000 intra-village roads in villages.

In 2024, 179 billion tenge were allocated, and it was planned to implement 1.4 thousand projects in more than 500 villages.

Another national project “Strong Regions - Driver of Country Development” was launched in 2021 to improve housing and communal conditions of the population, build roads, and so on.

The total amount of expenses for solving problems with roads and transport is 3.6 trillion tenge until 2025. The project includes a section called “Equal Access to Basic Services,” which is intended to provide the population with 100 percent housing, drinking water, etc. The total amount of expenses for implementing this section is 3.9 trillion tenge, according to information from the Committee for Construction and Housing and Public Utilities.

The conditions do not meet expectations

Since 2017, the program of resettling citizens from the southern regions to the northern regions “South - North”, where there is a shortage of workers, has been in operation. Four years ago, it was included in the project “Strong Regions - Driver of the Country's Development”. But you shouldn't rely on it, the program has been criticized by members of parliament more than once. And last year, the Prosecutor General's Office revealed cases of abuse and theft of more than a billion tenge under the program.

- It was clear that when we finance the move, give some kind of lifting allowance to those who move to the north, help with housing, this is not enough, because there are simply no jobs there. And the labor system has a different structure, and a southerner cannot find himself or the conditions do not correspond to the expectations of his mentality, - expressed the opinion of Professor of the Kazakh-German University Rustam BURNASHEV. - Rural areas, unlike the city, can provide work for a limited number of people. Now the resettlement of kandas is quite actively supported, and it is largely effective. The shift work format in the west of the country is also supported. But these examples do not concern attempts to preserve some settlements or keep people in rural areas.

And the outflow of population to megacities will continue, trying to reverse it will not work, the expert believes. So, maybe programs should be written for changing realities?

Elena KOEMETS, photo by Vladimir ZAIKIN, drawing by Igor KIYKO, Almaty